Thread by @FilandroMi

Citing the previous tweet

https://twitter.com/FilandroMi/status/1523852463182204928

and adding more information hoping to help get a clear panoramic on increasing #foodprices and the increasingly looming narrative of #recession 👇

A massive backlog of #grains is piling up in #Ukraine to the tune of nearly 25 million tons due to "#infrastructure challenges" and blocked #ports in the #BlackSea, including #Mariupol - @Reuters reports 📰
reuters.com/world/europe/u…

#Ukraine was the fourth-largest corn exporter in the 2020/21 season and the sixth-largest #wheat exporter in the world, according to the #IGC (International #Grains Council).
igc.int/en/downloads/2…

igc.int/en/markets/mar…

"It's an almost grotesque situation that we see at the moment in #Ukraine with almost 25 million tons of #grain that could be exported but cannot leave the country simply because of the lack of #infrastructure, the blockage of #ports,"

"Full silos could cause storage shortages for this year's July and August #crops" - #FAO Deputy Director #JosefSchmidhuber said during a press conference.

"Despite the #war, #crop conditions don't seem that dire. This could really mean that there is not enough #storage capacity in #Ukraine, especially if there are no #grain corridors opening up for export from Ukraine."

@CNN, however, reports from "multiple sources" that #Russian forces have reportedly looted farm equipment and hundreds of thousands of tons of grain from #Ukraine, with the Defense Ministry estimating Thursday that 400,000 tons of #grain have been stolen to date.

Figures that, being biased, are to be assessed as "Cum grano salis." - or - "with a grain of salt" 🧂
edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/eur….

@oniviev1 of the #Kyiv School of Economics stated that #thefts of #agricultural #equipment, such as #tractors and combines, by #Russian forces have been absolutely devastating for #Ukrainian #farmers.

"Even if these regions are liberated tomorrow, it will take time to restart the production cycle, perhaps two to three years." - Oleg Nivievskyi quoted (@oniviev1)

Buying #fertilizer and equipment and hiring workers would be difficult for #farmers who were wiped out by the #Russians, because their #grain is their working capital for the next season," Nivievskyi said.

Before the invasion, there were 6 million tons of #wheat and 15 million tons of #corn ready to be loaded onto ships and exported to foreign countries - staggering figures that highlight the depth of the issue markets will face.

#Farmers in the major growing areas in the southern part of the country, such as #Kherson and #Zaporizhzhia, have stopped planting operations due to lack of #agriculturalequipment, shortages of #diesel, #fertilizer and #seeds because of the disruptions caused by the #conflict.

Attacks on infrastructure in the not-yet-occupied #Ukraine are also to blame as the major cause of the #logistic #disruption in the #grain shipments.

Currently, local authorities assure that there is plenty of #grain, but ONLY for the local #population, so no #exports. ❌ ❌ ❌

This will affect the #economies of #wheat-importing countries, making them more #fragile.

This is another reiteration of the #volatility in the markets, as more #unrest keeps brewing: the like of the latest #news of #riots in the south of #Iran for the increase of #bread prices - for instance...
iranintl.com/en/202205080820

At the same time we have the absurd situation of #grain deposits full but severely disrupted and unfeasible to be exported where in need - ALL while an increasing number of countries are on the edge of #anarchy.