Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 18 54 tweets 32 min read
Thread: 18 July 2022: Day 145 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has been using troops flagged as "Wagner" in the recent fighting in Popasna and Lysyschansk to hold down the official casualty figures. To make up manpower, recruitment standards have been lowered, including recruiting criminals from prisons.
#Saudi purchases of #Russia's energy products has increased
Another #British subject has been announced captured by #Russia's forces in #Ukraine. John Harding, a combat medic in his fifties from Sunderland who has been in the Donbas since 2018, was taken in May from Azovstal as Mariupol fell.…
#Russia has it seems shot down one of its own Su-34 jets in Alchevsk in the Luhansk Oblast.
#pt: The Russians have always had problems "deconflicting" their war planes with their own air defences. See e.g. Georgia in 2008. Moscow's garbage air defences cannot tell friend from foe, one reason air power has been at such a low scale in Ukraine.
Rather stark differences between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to the short-term economic sacrifices they are willing to make for security.
#Ukraine is clearly pressing in around #Russian-occupied Kherson
#Hungary as willing to run interference for #Chinas as #Russia within Europe.
#Ukraine's Embassy says #Russia is funding anti-Ukrainian demonstrations in #Israel, which have taken place so far in Haifa, Netanya, and in front of the Embassy in Tel Aviv.
#Russia moved Lt.-Gen. Rustam Muradov from the Karabakh to control the "East" Group of its troops in #Ukraine
#Russia has a theoretically massive advantage in artillery, and has able intermittently to concentrate it on some limited zones in the Donbas, but achievements so far minimal. #Ukraine's far fewer assets have been put to much more militarily effective use.
Necessity is the mother of invention, etc.
#Russia sending its war-makers to the "peace" conference in #Turkey
Must confess, still think the Bayraktar song is catchier
Was indeed a telling moment that #Russia's mighty air defences in #Syria - the alibi for seven years of Western inaction - registered their first kinetic success against one of their own warplanes. Remains the only success to this day.
#pt: Again, #Russia's worthless air defence systems have demonstrated over decades, in multiple theatres, across continents, an incapacity with the most basic thing you would expect: an ability to tell friend from foe
Jordan Peterson, now sadly reduced to the two-dimensional caricature version of himself that was unfairly attacked five years ago, has ventured into the issue of #Russia's war on #Ukraine, and, as @CathyYoung63 explains, the result is not pretty.…
#pt: A "tell" that Peterson is being "naïve", as he concedes at one point he might be, is his reference to Aleksandr Dugin as a serious philosopher. Dugin is at most an emissary for the Putin government to the Western far-Right; he has no influence over the Kremlin whatsoever.
In a video call with officials, #Putin said Western sanctions were causing "colossal ... difficulties" for #Russia's tech sector. The online retailer Ozon and internet company Yandex have been severely hampered. VVP's proposal is to develop in isolation.…
When #Ukraine's Zelensky dismissed General Prosecutor Iryna Venediktova and SBU chief Ivan Bakanov on 17 July, he said 651 treason cases were open against people in their departments and 60 employees were collaborating with #Russia in the occupied zones…
Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the military administration in #Ukraine's Odesa Oblast, says the Navy has told him #Russia has moved "a significant number" of ships from Sevastopol (Crimea) to Novorossiysk (within Russia), presumably to get them out of range of Kiev's missiles.
In the first six months of 2022, more Jews fled the domestic repression in #Russia (about 16,500) to #Israel than fled from the war the Russians have imposed on #Ukraine (about 12,000).…
This is excellent by @daltman_IR: "The West Worries Too Much About Escalation in Ukraine"…
Further details about the hideous massacre by #Russia's "Wagner" unit of 200 to 600 men and boys over three days in late March 2022 in Moura, #Mali. This is the outcome of Moscow displacing particularly French influence in many areas of Africa.…
Apart from everything else wrong with this, "democracy and freedom" were not the causes of Nelson Mandela's life. His ultimate adoption of those things was a break with everything he had ever believed and worked for—which is in some ways more impressive.
There have been several legal cases in #Ukraine already that point very strongly to treachery in #Kherson, particularly in the local branch of the SBU (intelligence service).
RSOTM, a #Russia's "Wagner" unit channel, says #Ukraine's HIMARS have taken out "very important facilities", all reports HIMARS captured/destroyed are false. Notes, too, that Moscow can't cope with Western MLRS and Russian air defences aren't working.
#Ukraine's Army Commander-in-Chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny, says the #HIMARS have allowed targeted strikes on key #Russian positions, which has helped "stabilize the situation" and contributed to the Ukrainians' "retention of defensive lines".…
#Hungary's pro-government media overtly supporting #Russia's propaganda about its war on #Ukraine.
Video footage from Odesa in southern #Ukraine, which was struck by #Russian missiles tonight.
An elderly woman wounded by #Russia's missile attacks on Odesa in southern #Ukraine tonight.
The #EU turning to #Azerbaijan to make up the energy supplies cut off from #Russia.
Missed this: Marina Ovsyannikova—the journalist who protested on #Russian state TV, went to Germany, then back to Russia—was released by Russian police on 17 July. She is charged with "discrediting" the Army b/c of a speech outside court during oppositionist Ilya Yashin's hearing
#Russia's Defence Ministry says that Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has inspected the Vostok group, which is fighting in #Ukraine, and has instructed them "to give priority to the enemy's long-range missile and artillery weapons [i.e. HIMARS]".…
A boy in #Mariupol braved the threats of the #Russian occupation authorities in the city to appear before the Donetsk Drama Theatre, which Moscow destroyed on 16 March, wrapped in a Ukrainian flag, and shared his picture.…
#pt: In his statement tonight, #Ukraine's President Zelensky mentioned the boy in #Mariupol whose picture with a Ukrainian flag before the destroyed Drama Theatre in the #Russian-occupied city went viral today.
The #US House of Representatives approved a resolution expressing support for #Finland and #Sweden joining #NATO. The vote was 394-18: all those against were Republicans. Two Democrats and seventeen Republicans abstained.…

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 17
"I might not be the slickest presenter". Some self awareness from Liz Truss. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Truss quoting Reagan and running a campaign "about the future". I think she's perfectly fine to do the job, but goodness she is not a great communicator. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Badenoch going hard at Tugendhat for never having to make government decisions as a counter to his "clean break" pitch. Interested to see how that lands. #ToryLeadershipDebate
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
Thread: 17 July 2022: Day 144 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia is trying to reinforce defensive lines in the occupied south-east

- #Ukraine applying pressure around occupied Kherson, signs of an impending counter-offensive, which is likely what has provoked the Russian defensive moves.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 16
Thread: 16 July 2022: Day 143 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia's "offensive operations remain reduced in scope and scale", despite "false claims of success" aimed at a domestic audience.

- #Ukraine has shortened and straightened its defensive lines since Lysychansk fell, and has been able to slow RU down Image
President Zelensky's Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak says the National Defense Authorization Act approved by the #US House of Representatives includes $100m for training programs for #Ukraine's pilots with F-15s and F-16s, which should take about three months. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 11
Thread: 11 July 2022: Day 138 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues shelling the Donbas, but the territorial advances are incremental and the strain of sustaining combat operations is exacerbating all the problems in the Army, especially personnel. #Ukraine is pressuring the Russian line in Kherson.
#India and #Iran are working on a shorter trade route, the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), to avoid the #Russia sanctions.…
Read 52 tweets
Jul 10
A lot in this: Jordan Peterson was always most useful as a nudge in the culture - away from the "new atheist" rationalists, toward the wisdom of inherited Christianity, and the need for solutions to the "father hunger" - rather than a substantive answer.…
#pt: "There seems to be something of a ... splitting off of those who were initially attracted to [Jordan Peterson as] a nuanced and fascinating thinker on religion and culture, and those who were mainly attracted to him as a culture war political fighter."
#pt: "It's undeniable that Peterson's philosophy, and the way he broke it down ... has helped thousands, if not millions of people. The mainstream portrayal of him always failed to acknowledge ... [the] testimonies from people saying how his work had saved their lives"
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
Thread: 10 July 2022: Day 137 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Ukrainians explain why they stayed to fight #Russia's invasion
Instructive that even in a zone where they have even seriously beaten, #Russia is still moving towards annexation in Kharkiv
Read 23 tweets

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