Thread by @ithoughtadviser

The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…

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#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty

Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.

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#recession #india #economy

Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.

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#rbi #gdp #centralbanks

Let’s look at inflation.

Developed nations have not seen such high inflation in decades. Our country has learnt a lesson from its historically high inflation and uncontrollable CAD with depreciating currency to ensure inflation remains under control.

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#inflation

Volatility in commodity prices and geopolitical factors continue to make trade developments uncertain. This resulted in India’s trade deficit widening to $31Bn in July 2022. All eyes are on the ₹Rupee₹ now!

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#indianrupee #commodity

Such a blip for the USD may not sustain given the huge risks of inflation. Compared to other currencies, INR is sitting tight and ready to weather the storm.

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#inflation #inr #usd #interestrates

With the aim of taming inflation, RBI has been increasing the policy rate since May 2022, with a cumulative rate hike of 140Bps (so far). According to the RBI bulletin in August 2022, inflation peaked in April 2022.

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#RBI #inflation #policyrate

Stable Fiscal Policy + Aggressive Monetary Policy+ Widening CAD + Relatively Stable Rupee + Controlled inflation= ….?

What are your views?

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#inflation #inr #monetarypolicy