Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 14 59 tweets 43 min read
Thread: 14 September 2022: Day 203 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update notes the confirmation that #Russia is using #Iran's Shahed-136 drones, which have a range of 1,500 miles and were used in the attack on the MT MERCER STREET merchant tanker on 3 July 2021. Seems Moscow is using them for tactical strikes, not long-range.
Talk in #Georgia of opening a second front while #Russia is tied down in #Ukraine to liberate the occupied areas in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

If you want to challenge for Russian-protected territories, now is the moment. (See also: #Azerbaijan.)
Mini thread on what we might call "Russian liberal Discourse". For those of us who know some Russian liberals and the risks they are still taking, the largely thoughtless and axe-grinding nature of much of the recent discussion has been at best annoying.
Igor Girkin (Strelkov), #Russia's man in #Ukraine after the 2014 phase of the invasion, deeply unimpressed with claims of Russian gains around Bakhmut amid the unfolding catastrophe on the other fronts.
Positive signs from the #EU in dealing with #China's infiltration of Western societies and theft of technological and scientific intelligence from us - much of which is shared with other rogue actors, #Russia and #China prominent among them.
#Finland's Prime Minister @MarinSanna has been consistently excellent throughout all of this.
Claim from #Armenian channels that one of the #Russian military convoys ostensibly there to protect the state was destroyed by #Azerbaijan.
#Denmark is already part of the training program in Britain to assist the #Ukrainian Armed Forces - along with Canada, Finland, Sweden, and New Zealand - and is now opening up a similar program on her own territory.
Video of #Ukraine's troops, including volunteers from #France and the #US, liberating areas in the east.
An experience few can claim: #Ukrainian soldier Vyacheslav Zadorenko helped liberate a population that included his mother from #Russian occupation.
Took longer than it should have done, but the signal has finally got around: #Russia is being challenged in its imperial possessions as #Ukraine helps everyone understand the hollowness of its power.
Another statement from #China's government of its full support for #Russia's attempt to eradicate #Ukraine.
Thread of horrifying testimonies of what #Russia's forces did to #Ukrainians in the occupied areas that were recently liberated.
#Putin's chief envoy on #Ukraine told the ruler that a deal had been reached in outline to keep Kyiv out of #NATO and satisfy the "security" issues Moscow claimed concerned it. Putin rejected this and pressed on with his ideological desire to annex Ukraine reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
A massive #Russian cyber-attack in #Montenegro, where not so long ago the Russian government tried to organise a coup.
Was pretty obvious in the build-up to #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine that Putin had no interest in material concessions, like keeping the Ukrainians out of NATO, and was motivated by an ideological mission to "recover" Ukraine for the Russian Empire.
Does appear #Azerbaijan attacked a #Russian position in #Armenia (Gegharkunik) overnight, apparently belonging to the Russian FSB.
Incredible story about @Mamulashvili_M's actions defending his country during the first days as #Russia tried to conquer #Ukraine.
Oh my God. Charap with the equivalent of tweeting through it, except he's given space in @ForeignAffairs to double-down on nonsense that was mad when he first said it and has been decisively disproved on the battlefield.
Exactly so. Western support for #Ukraine isn't just a moral or humanitarian issue; it's a core strategic interest, dealing with #Russia and #China.
.@WCKitchen helping liberated Izyum recover now the Russians are out.
The #US once again telling a country, in this case #Azerbaijan, that things they self-evidently want, are not in their best interests, as if that will have them reconsider.
#Russia's media framing the flare-up between #Azerbaijan and #Armenia as a Western conspiracy to set Moscow against #Turkey, rather than the Azeris seeing an opportunity because the Russians are so tied down in, and enfeebled by, #Ukraine.
#pt: An @RFERL reports about #Russia withdrawing the bulk of the troops it had in #Kyrgyzstan, #Tajikistan, and #Armenia to send to #Ukraine - which is what is behind the current Kyrgyz-Tajik border clashes and #Azerbaijan's latest moves against Armenia. currenttime.tv/a/32031866.html
It's not just, perhaps not even mainly, the numbers of #Russian troops themselves - in #Tajikistan, for example, it is probably only 1,500 of the 6-7,000 troops that have been pulled out - but the political sense that Moscow cannot act in these areas.
#US reiterates how impressed it has been by #Ukraine's adaptiveness and skill in using the military equipment supplied.
The ATACMs situation will almost certainly resolve like all the others - with the #US sending them to #Ukraine - but for now we are still in the pointless delay phase.
.@radiosvoboda interviewed #Ukrainian victims #Russia's torture and other atrocities in the occupied areas. Footage shows people discovering their murdered relatives.

The Russian troops kept insisting Ukrainians were taking American-supplied drugs and so did not feel pain.
#Ukrainian farmers towing #Russian tanks with their tractors. Again.
This is all quite silly and evasive. By defining "escalation" to include Ukraine recapturing territory, and normatively coding "escalation" as bad, you're hiding behind a word game to argue for leaving parts of Ukraine under a terrifying occupation regime.
#pt: Suppose it is granted that Ukraine recapturing occupied territory is "escalation": it can very easily be argued this is "escalating to de-escalate", i.e. a better path to actual peace than a "ceasefire" that freezes in place the Russian occupation.
#pt: Overall, though, it is better if Ukraine policy does not hinge on the word "escalation" and one author's sense that this is a bad thing. Just argue plainly for the outcome you think is best, rather than trying to smuggle your desired outcome through customs lexicographically
Pictures released of #Ukraine's President Zelensky visiting newly liberated #Izyum.
More of the pictures released from #Ukraine's President Zelensky visit to newly liberated #Izyum.
#pt: A perceptive #Russian commentator on #Ukraine's President Zelensky visiting #Izyum: notes it is a skilful PR move, an important morale boost, has the enthusiasm of a "total victory" in a way Mariupol, a grinding win for Russia not a "knockout", wasn't
Good threat by @WarintheFuture on the purposes of #Ukraine's President Zelensky visiting the fronts: a morale boost for the troops, a civil-military trust-building exercise, draws a sharp contrast with Putin, and shows the West he's not a bunker leader.
It is inconceivable Putin would visit the fronts: unlike Zelensky with his Army, Putin's presence would not boost Russian soldiers' morale - he is responsible for sending them into this awful situation under threats - and Putin would never trust his security to such a rabble.
On #Russian state television, Araik Stepanyan makes the daring case that it is the Americans, rather than the Ukrainians, who want to prevent Russia conquering Ukraine, because they want to colonise it like Australia. "All the Anglo-Saxons will move there"
#Ukrainians turn to the Lord's Prayer in their darkest moments.
A bill advancing through the #US Congress to send additional military support to #Taiwan.
Rail roads back on track in liberated Balakliya.
#Lithuania's Foreign Minister in #Ukraine, wearing his #NAFO shirt, meeting his counterparts from Ukraine and #Ireland.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man often reported as "Putin's chef" who nominally runs the "private PMC" Wagner Group, in reality a unit of #Russia's military intelligence service, is at a jail recruiting prisoners to fight in #Ukraine.
Apparently #Russia is not that confident #Iran will sign-on to JCPOA 2.0 ...
#pt: The role #Iran played in developing a nuclear weapons program in #Syria was back in the news this week.
#Russia: a taxi driver in Tula ended up going out with a lady he met while at work. He was then invited to spend some time with her friends, who disliked his answers about politics, so called the police on him. He was fined 80,000 rubles. vk.com/wall-29534144_…
#Putin's placeholder president Dmitry Medvedev muses on the dangers of #NATO sending weapons to "Ukrainian Nazis", mentions World War Three, of course, and for novelty throws in the plagues, fire, and brimstone of the Book of Revelations. t.me/medvedev_teleg…
#Russia copium blames the #NATO "mercenaries" for the losses in #Ukraine.
#Russia launched its fourth hypersonic missile since the war on #Ukraine began, and it landed on Russian territory in Stavropol.
#Russian soldier calls home to his wife about the army disorganisation and the threat he is under. She enquires whether he has shit himself, and if so does he have tissues to handle the situation, then asks to be called when there's less noise.
As #Ukraine's President Zelensky returned to Kyiv, after visiting the Izyum front, his car was struck by another vehicle. Zelensky was examined by a doctor, who found "no serious injuries". The driver of the other car was taken to hospital. bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
#Ukraine's leadership spelling out one of the points President Zelensky seeks to make by visiting the frontlines in the newly liberated zones: creates a start contrast with Putin

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 15
Thread: 15 September 2022: Day 204 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russian soldier talking to his wife is somewhat unimpressed with the commanders and even less impressed with the #Chechen Kadyrovtsy, the "Akhmat", who "fucked off (i.e. ran away), the fucking cowards" as the #Ukrainians closed in.
In #Mariupol overnight, #Ukrainians sang the national anthem in Liberation Square, knowing it can get them arrested and worse by the #Russian occupation authorities in the city. A sense that liberation is coming is spreading.
Read 41 tweets
Sep 13
Thread: 13 September 2022: Day 202 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), "one of the most prestigious" units, operating under the Western Military District, "had not been fully reconstituted" before #Ukraine began the #Kharkiv counter-offensive; has now suffered further "heavy" losses. Image
#Russia "recently requested to purchase ammunition for its Uragan rocket artillery from #Tajikistan, along with shells for Pion howitzers and armored personnel carrier (APC) engines." yahoo.com/now/moscow-see…
Read 40 tweets
Sep 12
Thread: 12 September 2022: Day 201 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is gone from #Kharkiv & "struggling to bring sufficient reserves" to reinforce #Kherson, where an "improvised floating bridge" started two weeks ago is unfinished and #Ukraine is hitting the Dnipro River crossings faster than they can be repaired
Great moving map shows the stark difference over six months, between March, when #Russia was at its height in terms of territory held in #Ukraine, and yesterday
Read 48 tweets
Sep 11
Thread: 11 September 2022: Day 200 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine has "continued to make significant gains in the Kharkiv region" over the last 24 hours. Also notes that #Putin has lied about exports of grain from Ukraine.
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kayrov, coping very hard and threatening further conquests in #Ukraine. Interestingly, this comes after Kadyrov appeared to say he was resigning.
Read 53 tweets
Sep 10
Thread: 10 September 2022: Day 199 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update takes note of #Ukraine's advances against #Russia in the Kharkiv Oblast, which the Russians had only lightly defended; there was also likely an element of surprise. The Ukrainians are pressing on in Kherson, too. Image
#Ukraine has liberated Kupyansk, the crucial city of #Russia's occupation administration in #Kharkiv. Her troops can be seen here in the city centre.
Read 41 tweets
Sep 5
Thread: 5 September 2022: Day 194 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's "main effort in #Ukraine almost certainly remains its Donbas offensive", rather than reinforcing against the counter-offensive in Kherson. Moscow has had "the most success" in Donetsk recently, but it is still advancing only 0.5 miles per week. Image
Horseshoe theory in action: "Progressive International" leader supporting the nationalist protests in #Czechia and their #Russia-friendly demands to cease support to #Ukraine and restore economic relations with Moscow. Image
Read 15 tweets

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