@ECFRMena & @ECFRAsia cross-over! Me & @a_bachulska wrote a short piece on #China - #GCC relations *seen from both sides.* We thought there was an abundance of partial viewpoints but really scarcity of strategic comprehensive overview. 1/
The first thing we do is put to rest the once ubiquitous argument that #China-#Gulf relations are only economic. In fact, they are grounded in compatible visions of #multipolarity. A year after #RussiaInvadedUkraine, multipolarity is the real winner! 2/
#Beijing is the 1st #trade partner for the monarchies & invested in key infrastructures, ie acquired 20% of largest #port in #SaudiArabia (Jeddah). But #GCC leaders are also wary of Chinese reliability-ie obstacles to sign #FTA despite #Xi insistence. 3/
#China-#GCC#energy ties then, both #oil & #LNG border actual, proper dependency. This explains shared strategic interests to shield these from potential #Western sanctions, ie by expanding non-dollar financial infrastructure, including #crypto. 4/
Myself & @a_bachulska argue that beyond all these contingent data what glues #China & #Gulf monarchies together is a shared vision for a multipolar world & effective narratives: 5/
In this @ECFRMena & @ECFRAsia piece, we suggest #Gulf monarchies feel super confident they won’t be forced to pick sides btwn #US & #China & have pushed back half-backed US threats (#Huawei). It might be more effective now for #Europe-ans to also play the multipolar game: 6/6
BREAKING: #UAE President #KhalifabinZayed just died. Crown Prince of #AbuDhabi since 1969, and Abu Dhabi Ruler & President since his father Sheikh Zayed died in 2004. The #BurjKhalifa was initially named to honor him.
A few words on him + what happens now in a thread. 1/
After #KhalifabinZayed suffered a stroke in 2014, his younger brother Mohammad bin Zayed (#MbZ) became de facto leader of the #UAE. Now the Federal Supreme Council (including the rulers of the 7 Emirates) will ratify #MbZ as official President of the #UAE. Basically guaranteed 2/
A thread on imagining impacts of the #Metaverse on “my” world. How will the job of a #geopolitics analyst be different? How will this new platform change international relations in general and the #Gulf in particular? Feel free to add your take, it’s simply thinking out loud. 1/
First, meetings & events. #Zoom events are here to stay, alongside in-person ones. But a digital event on #Metaverse could be so much better and closer to a real-life experience, enhanced by instant access to resources 2/
Then, outputs. Will it make sense to write papers when you can produce an interactive output combining texts, recordings, images/videos in the form of a meta-research on #geopolitics on #Metaverse? 3/
Good that #SaudiArabia & #UAE have pledged #NetZero but #GCC total domestic emissions are only 2.4% of world’s. The #EU needs to focus on the emissions they export, mostly to #China, I argue how: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 2/
#EU Foreign Ministers meet today for #Gymnich. They will discuss #Afghanistan. But then they will discuss the #Gulf. This is a rare occurrence - EU Ministers have discussed #JCPOA often but very rarely regional geopolitics between the #GCC, #Iraq & #Iran. They do now because… ⬇️
…because of the #Baghdad_summit last week and #France’s involvement in it. Most in #EU that #Iraq can be the hub for regional diplomacy in the #Gulf, building on talks btwn #SaudiArabia & #Iran. Reality is that with no progress on #Yemen these talks are shallow but ⬇️
…but I welcome choice to discuss #Gulf geopolitics at a #EU level. Hope there is some realism in acknowledging this is a security matter, not a diplomatic misunderstanding. #US retrenchment will inevitably lead to more #Russia & #China in the Gulf. It is already happening. So ⬇️
The moment we were waiting for has come. New #Kuwait Emir, #SheikhNawaf, nominates his brother Mishal Al-Ahmad as Crown Prince. He is a security person, w/past experience in the Interior Ministry and Deputy Chief of the Kuwaiti National Guard since 2004. Some thoughts. 1/
The National Assembly (NA) has to confirm Mishal al-Ahmad as #Kuwait CP with 2/3 majority. As @bmalsaif said, Emir prolonged term of the outgoing NA to Oct 20 coz it was the safer option - new Parliament likely to have more opposition members & elections vulnerable to meddling 2/
That #Kuwait Emir chose his brother Mishal al-Ahmed as CP, is in continuity w/agnatic seniority - he was also appointed CP by his brother #SheikhSabah. #GCC old generation thinking. Mishal was the only to accompany Sabah in the US for medical treatment, they were very close. 3/