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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
, 13 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Today we launch Brexit Forensics - a deep dive into some of the issues and sectoral changes thrown up by EU Withdrawal - starting with Cars
.. First Brexit Forensics is about to debut on All Out Politics - Car industry
1/10 Internal memo Car industry memo: Meeting with Government on customs "disillusioning" "lack of detailed information"
#brexitforensic
2/10: "blocking of our questions.. no concrete idea of how to apply [customs] proposals" - Industry expected detailed proposals to act on
3/10 ...memo concludes was a "desperate attempt" to find out basic information & "get the industry to suggest solutions" instead of offering
4/10 JLR boss tells @Skynews its investment in a massive facility in Slovakia has now become a "de facto hedge" against post-Brexit concerns
5/10 Oxford Mini Plant has contingency to increase by 50% levels of stock reqd to run just-in-time manufacturing with 24hr customs delays
6/10 "as of today nobody knows": JLR. "No I'm not" BMW's Robertson when asked what trading and legal environment will be in 18 month's time
7/10 Industry: told by Govt UK car will accept EU car rules & standards. Eg JLR's Gross: "no noises from UK Govt they expect any different"
8/10 annoyance that Govt overclaims car investments as Brexit strategy endorsement, minister refused permission to conduct interviews onsite
9/10 BMW boss "cant q understand" proposal customs outsourced to industry through expansion of "AEO" scheme as suggested in Customs paper
10/10 also denies that it will be lobbying Merkel to give UK a special deal: "we aren't likely to be lobbying in any particular direction"
FULL story from our first #brexitforensics piece on car industry concerns news.sky.com/story/governme…
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
It’s here:
“As you know, we are not in a position to agree to anything that changes or is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement...”
Repeats December Council conclusions reassured that those conclusions have “legal value”
Read 10 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
In an eve of vote speech tomorrow in a top pro-Brexit area PM will say, acc to Downing St “based on the evidence of the last week, she now believes that MPs blocking Brexit is a more likely outcome than leaving with no deal”.
Meanwhile Johnson, Davis, Raab, Patel - 12 former ministers in total write an open letter to all Tory MPs urging them to vote it down “it will not lead to no Brexit or to an early GE”
And @DavidHenigUK ex DiT official gets quoted by those Brexiter ministers in their letter:
Read 11 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Corbyn gnomic as ever on actual Brexit policy... tho not inconsistent with Gardiner on Ridge last week - that Labour should attempt to negotiate a comprehensive customs union, and then put that to the people - which is my best guess at where Labour manifesto policy would end up
Corbyn gave the clearest indication yet that should the vote go down on Tuesday, Labour would push for an A50 extension. He hinted at this when I interviewed him last month, but seemed to suggest it was inevitable on Marr...
Also telling that Corbyn framing leaving the customs union as a trade that will weaken environmental & worker rights/standards for the express purpose of doing a US FTA. As he would campaign heavily against a US FTA, no downside to staying in CU...
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
A seriously blue sky #Brexit thought that I've been having lately.

If this happens, you read it here first :)

What if the Irish offered the UK a unilateral exit clause on the backstop?

Bear with me... 1/Thread
This seems nuts, I know, but imagine a world where we are right, deep in the endzone and it is clear that this is what gets the Withdrawal Agreement over the line.

By this point, the British parliament will have demonstrated it has no appetite or majority to crash out /2
And that would clearly be the heavy price of walking away from the backstop - which anyway cuts the old Dec 2020 'cliff-edge' pretty much in half.

Have look at the positive spin of the backstop from this weeks DUP reassurance paper. /3
Read 11 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
First #Brexit piece of 2019.
Short version:

1/ Number 10 focussed on second Commons vote;

2/ Slightly softer than consensus on EU. Meaningful concessions from Bxl unlikely until very last-minute to limit room for Eurosceptics to demand more. So after first vote.
1/ It's true that default position under EU Withdrawal Act 2018 is that UK will leave on 29 March unless Parliament passes new legislation
2/ However, May has privately warned some Tory MPs that some legislation is needed to implement a no deal exit
Read 8 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. #Brexit has slipped out of the headlines - but like two prizefighters, both sides are setting themselves for the fight to come. Some of the battles are EU v EU, some UK v UK.

So what's going on? Here's a quick overview from what I know.
1/thread
First the UK v UK debate.

As we report today, David Davis and Olly Robbins are representing conflicting views over how 'ambitious' the UK should be in the scope of the non-binding annex on trade and the future relationship. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
It seems DD got his way in sending a letter asking Govt departments to tool up for Brexit negotiations, including teams of specialists.

Time will tell if this was a face-saving measure for the Brexit Secretary who has long argued UK must seek guts of a trade deal in A50. /3
Read 18 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
So here's my last #Brexit thread of the year.

If you saw Theresa May's message today you'll see that all she has is bland platitudes. She's totally disconnected and out of her depth. She doesn't understand Brexit or the sentiment behind it & has no idea what direction to take.
This should come as no surprise. She is attempting to deliver something that cannot possibly satisfy everyone and will deliver little that was promised. She cannot have her Florence deal and at some point she has to come clean. This, though, is entirely the fault of Vote Leave.
Vote Leave hijacked Brexit, telling lies when there was no need. The Tory right have since made it an economic proposition based on a feeble command of the issues making bogus claims which do not stand, drawing red lines that will have to be crossed.
Read 16 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets

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