Thread by @ASlavitt

BREAKING: Tax bill decision on whether to include ACA repeal in Senate must be made in next 2-3 days.

Stay tuned. Follow if interested.

At the Senate caucus lunch today, a set of Republicans are selling the idea of repealing the ACA mandate. 2/

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Let me explain the situation and then the likely impact... 3/

The Senate bill does not currently meet CBO budget rules. Something radical needs to change.

Also... 3/

(I know I screwed up the thread numbering at 3. Pretty bad. But at least I'm sticking to 140)

Also, the House bill has a slightly more favorable state & local tax deduction than the Senate. Needed to try to get CA and NY House Rs. 5/

Senate is facing pressure to adapt the House version so bill can pass the House. But that would cost hundreds of billions more. 6/

One item that would save them several hundred billion $ is eliminating the ACA mandate. 7/

The Senate is likely choosing between 2 unpopular ideas: the mandate or the State/Local deduction. 8/

The Senate Finance Committee is producing a "mark up" very shortly. Per 1 expert I talked to, this is the last vehicle 2 include mandate.9/

The GOP Senate Caucus has closed door lunch every Tuesday. One major topic today was whether to include mandate repeal.10/

The reason mandate repeal saves $300+ billion per CBO is because 10-15mm+ people would lose coverage. 11/

There is argument over the exact number but what matters more is that these aren't all ppl getting coverage because they're forced to. 12/

If the mandate goes away, premiums go up (5%? 10%?, 15%?) and options decrease. People who want insurance can no longer get it.13/

Insurers have told me that between the President's Exec Order, no mandate & CSR fight, it becomes more difficult to offer coverage. 14/

I'm in DC today. Flew here yesterday. Been calling/meeting people all morning. Here's what I'm saying... 15/

The next 48 hours is critical to take a stand against mandate repeal which brings misery in top of misery. And...

Without the mandate, the tax bill math is very hard. & the politics of state/local tax are very hard.

This is key place 2 take a stand.17/