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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe
, 26 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1. The Brexit revolution is increasingly becoming radicalised.
2. At the beginning of the referendum campaign, EEA membership was a legitimate kind of Brexit. We in the Remain campaign attacked it for its inferiority to full membership.
3. Then Michael Gove gave a speech saying Brexit meant leaving the single market.
4. After the referendum, May talked of a Brexit that would keep the nations of the UK together
5. Then came the Citizens of Nowhere speech - hinting strongly at leaving the single market and customs union
6. Then Lancaster House: openly declared the need to leave the customs union and single market - hard brexit. The A50 letter threatening security cooperation.
7. After the election: the DUP confidence and supply meant no separate arrangement for NI.
8. That is was done without thinking of the consequences shows where No 10's priorities were - its own parliamentary majority
9. The summer armistice between Hammond and Fox - temporary transition in exchange for hard brexit in two years.
10. Florence speech changed tone not substance (see my @CNNOpinion piece google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.cnn.…)
11. Slow realisation that Dublin means what it says (as Berlin meant what it said when Merkel told May there would be no cherry picking) driving next stage
12. We have Liam Fox mulling ending "exceptions for Ireland" and The Sun telling the Taoiseach to "shut his gob."
13. People who actually want no deal blaming Ireland for blocking a deal, so giving them what they want!
14. Brexit (remember that airships to monitor a notoriously cloudy border have been proposed) would have worked if it weren't for...
15. people who refused to help Britain in its hour of self imposed need: the bankers, the German carmakers, the Irish, the punitive EU...
16. ...the CBI talking Britain down, the "unpatriotic" media, Remainers who think it will be a disaster, judges.
17. And we've still got 16 months to go before Brexit day.
18. Fringe positions chased out the moderate until they became the moderate ones. The new moderate ones are chased out in turn by proposals more extreme still.
19. This happens because of wishful thinking (cake and eat it) and failure to realise the established norms aren't binding any more.
20. Moderates overestimate the possibility and underestimate the degree of radical change because they've too much at stake in the crumbling status quo.
21. The hunt for scapegoats will continue (and, on the Remain side too - Legatum is not a Russian plot)
22. Treating a small majority at a referendum as justification for major constitutional change created polarisation.
23. Opinion is too divided for either side to win a decisive victory. Before the election Remainers might have conceded, but now they are up for a fight too.
24. The incentive on either side is to win support with radical and emotional appeals to the committed.
25. This will get worse before it gets better whether the public or business or anyone who wants to get on with their lives likes it or not.
26. You may not be interested in Brexit, but Brexit is interested in you. Ends
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