(THREAD) The tax bill that just passed the Senate is terrible policy. But Republicans are right that passing it is better for them politically than failure.
Here's why:
Here's why:
As some admitted, failing to cut rich people's taxes would've infuriated donors
This is what they paid for. It's why they tolerate Trump damaging America's global position and the democratic norms at least some of them care about
And, like it or not, money helps win elections
2/x
This is what they paid for. It's why they tolerate Trump damaging America's global position and the democratic norms at least some of them care about
And, like it or not, money helps win elections
2/x
Parts of the Republican base are ideologically committed to tax cuts above all else. They can ignore failure in every other area, but not this one.
No tax cuts would've left them disillusioned. They'd never vote Democrat, but they might choose not to volunteer. Or vote.
3/x
No tax cuts would've left them disillusioned. They'd never vote Democrat, but they might choose not to volunteer. Or vote.
3/x
An unfortunately high number of Americans treat politics like sports. My team rules, your team sucks. Details irrelevant.
They'll celebrate this "win," and would've been discouraged by a loss.
That encourages volunteers and turnout, and reduces chances of primary challenges.
4/x
They'll celebrate this "win," and would've been discouraged by a loss.
That encourages volunteers and turnout, and reduces chances of primary challenges.
4/x
The bill screws over a lot of working and middle class Americans, including some Trump brought into the party.
But how many of them will care?
The pain doesn't really kick in for a few years. And the media/politicians they trust will say it helps them. Most will believe it.
5/x
But how many of them will care?
The pain doesn't really kick in for a few years. And the media/politicians they trust will say it helps them. Most will believe it.
5/x
Democrats are already as motivated as they can be.
Passing a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people will motivate them. But so would trying, but failing, to pass a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people.
6/x
Passing a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people will motivate them. But so would trying, but failing, to pass a big tax cut that almost exclusively helps rich people.
6/x
This doesn't change any of the criticisms of the bill's substance.
It's not regular order, which McCain said matters.
It's not close to deficit-neutral (even when assuming big economic growth), which Flake said matters.
It'll make premiums go up, which Collins said matters.
7/x
It's not regular order, which McCain said matters.
It's not close to deficit-neutral (even when assuming big economic growth), which Flake said matters.
It'll make premiums go up, which Collins said matters.
7/x
It's poorly constructed, deficit-financed stimulus at the exact wrong point in the business cycle.
But the likely effect is a short-term boost. That's politically advantageous for 2018.
Maybe the bubble won't pop until after 2020. (If it does, they'll blame something else).
8/x
But the likely effect is a short-term boost. That's politically advantageous for 2018.
Maybe the bubble won't pop until after 2020. (If it does, they'll blame something else).
8/x
The Republican tax bill is basically a no-money down ballooning interest rate mortgage.
It's a terrible idea in the long-run. But the immediate effects should be pretty nice.
9/x
It's a terrible idea in the long-run. But the immediate effects should be pretty nice.
9/x
That's donors, ideologues, and politics-as-sports voters happy. And few besides Democrats unhappy. At least in the short term.
The policy is bad for millions of Americans and for the country as a whole.
But politically, passing it was better for Republicans than failure.
(END)
The policy is bad for millions of Americans and for the country as a whole.
But politically, passing it was better for Republicans than failure.
(END)
