1. Thread: A few things I wanted to highlight from my recent @TheAtlantic piece on #IranProtests or was not able to include: theatlantic.com/international/…
2. First, humility: Despite vast polling/big data Trump's election was unanticipated. Anticipating what will happen in a country largely inaccessible to truly independent investigation/polling is doubly difficult. Anyone who claims they did/can predict things is mistaken
3. We can salute the courage of non-violent protesters and sympathize with their frustrations but still be sober about their prospects. Citizen protesters, as far as we can tell, remain unarmed, unorganized, and leaderless
4. The Iranian regime’s vast coercive apparatus, as far as we can tell, remains cohesive, committed, and very well-practiced in repression. They've been doing this a long time, including in Syria
5. In contrast to the Shah's political and military elite-many of whom were educated abroad or had foreign passports-the Islamic Republic's political/military elite don't have an Option B abroad. Option A, therefore, is to stay in power by all means necessary
6. The Islamic Republic may be able to rely, if necessary, on the Shia militias they’ve been training for years (in Syria/Iraq) and in some cases decades (Hezbollah). Fighting unarmed Iranian civilians will be easier for them than fighting Syrian rebels/Sunni jihadists
7. While I agree the #1 frustration of most protesters/Iranians is economic, accusing your political representatives of plunder and mismanagement is inherently political. Protest slogans reflect this:
8. It is often male analysts insensitive to the indignities of women living in Iran who claim that protests are solely driven by economic frustration. Follow the great @AlinejadMasih to learn more
9. Human beings everywhere find corruption, repression, and injustice even more insulting when it's conducted from a moral pedestal. Transparency international ranks Iran--an Islamist theocracy--131/176 countries on the corruption index transparency.org/country/IRN
10. Another stat: During Iran’s 2009 protests less than 1m people had smart phones, few outside Tehran. Today 48 MILLION people have them. State-controlled media is less potent when people have independent news sources-and video cameras-in their pocket techrasa.com/2017/07/19/48-…
11. Another notable stat: A 2017 Gallup “Global Emotions” ranked Iran #3 in the world in “Highest Negative Experiences” (i.e. daily frustration/anger) after Iraq and South Sudan, of 142 countries surveyed: news.gallup.com/reports/212648…
12. I still find it remarkable these protests began in deeply religious/traditional cities like Mashhad and Qom, long considered to be government strongholds. It is akin to national anti-Trump protests beginning in Kentucky
13. Many folks in the West are obsessed with comparing Iran to Saudi Arabia. Most Iranians resent this comparison. You’ll never meet an Iranian who says, “I’m content w/ my life b/c we have more freedoms than Saudi.” Increasingly the latter is not even true anymore.
14. There are several folks offering commentary in the Western media who were/are employed by official Iranian government political/media organs. They should be transparent about this, just as former US officials are transparent about their work experience
15. This video reflects a common sentiment one hears among younger Iranians toward their parent’s generation, who brought down an authoritarian monarchy only to usher in an even more authoritarian (politically, economically, and socially) theocracy
16. Laura Secor’s book ‘Children of Paradise’ covers Iran's generational divides well. It's terrific book on Iran's contemporary history amazon.com/dp/B00XIYG5YK/…
17. Regimes totally untethered from the West-like Iran-can commit far greater brutality against their own population. Hosni Mubarak couldn’t mass murder/gas/displace civilians like Bashar Assad, who needn't worry that Tehran/Moscow will stop providing him military/financial aid
18. Things US should do: 1)Carefully crafted statements of solidarity 2) Censuring those who provide Tehran the means/technology to repress/black out communication. 3)Mobilize allies who have good ties to Iran—EU, Japan, India, S Korea, etc-to deter massive crackdown/black out
19. On Friday January 5 we (@CarnegieEndow @CDA) will be talking more about these issues and launching an extensive report on Iran's Cyber capabilities/activities/repression, based on over a year of primary research carnegieendowment.org/2018/01/05/ira…
20. Things US should not do: 1) Encourage/incite protestors. George HW Bush encouraged Iraqis to rise up against Saddam in 1991, when they did so Saddam crushed them and Bush was blamed. 2) Unscripted presidential tweets that divert attention from Iran’s repression
