1) Alright, anyone who's seen my previous threads about Iran's banking system and economy know that my general view is that Iran's economy is teetering on the edge of... well, oblivion.
2) Most of the banks that rely on Iran's central bank are hilariously short on reserve cash because the banks are regularly being stripped of millions of dollars in toxic and fraudulent loans.
3) Iran's GDP is contracting, their currency grows more worthless every passing week, and right now the only thing that's keeping Iran from facing total economic collapse is the fact that people still trust the banks backed by Iran's central bank.
4) Believe me, you do NOT want to know how much an economy essentially relies on positive thoughts and idealism.
5) Anyways, Iran's banks now realize exactly how precarious of a position that they're in, and they have been desperately trying to offload foreclosed property from their balance sheets to try to recover some measure of reserve cash.
6) Here's where the general strike comes in! As you'd expect with a strike, people don't make money during them. They have to fall back on their savings. Where are their savings? The banks that they trust, the ones supported by the central bank.
7) What happens when a higher-than-normal amount of people start to withdraw their savings, only to find their bank is OUT OF MONEY? Panic. Sheer blind bloody fucking panic.
8) This is how countries die. Not with a bloody revolt, not with a civil war, but when people realize that the absurd levels of corruption that those young people marching down the streets every day about is worse than THEY'VE claimed, and that corruption just stole your savings.
9) Right now, Iran's central bank has 2 options. Let the banks die, which results in the government dying.
10) Option 2 is bail out the banks by printing a shit ton of money and dropping it in. Note, Iran's economy is not like the US economy. We could absorb that kind of systemic shock, the sudden increase in our money supply and the banks who didn't need the bailout just paid it back
11) Iran's economy has been in essentially a recession, probably a depression, and the only reason it limped along for another 2 years is because of the sanctions relief Obama provided.
12) If the Iran central bank DOES try to bailout the banks, their currency is going to devalue even further. Hyperinflation kicks in, and people lose their savings anyways as they become worthless.
13) Heads you lose, tails you lose slower.
