Thread by @ScipioAcheronus

Fascinating paper comparing the potential/achieved capacity factor for wind power in China vs. US, by @jhuenteler @gabeaschan @l_diaz_anadon Tian Tang.

Big implications for energy transition w/in free(ish) market vs. heavier hand of the state. Thread.
1/
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

I often despair of US markets' ability to drive fast enough clean energy transition & assume eventually central planning (or at least heavy government involvement) will play greater role. But this paper reminds me why capitalism is the worst economic system except for the rest
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Perhaps I'm just late to the party, but was surprised to learn that in 2016, China had over 2x installed wind capacity wind as the U.S. (168.7GW vs. 82.2), but just barely generated more wind power (241TWh vs. 226.9). U.S. got MUCH more bang for its buck (or at least concrete)
3/

Bulk of the study = a deep dive into US & China wind data from 2006-2013 to analyze respective differences in their technically-achievable vs. actual CF

Main factors: (1) siting; (2) hub height; (3) turbine model; (4) delay b/w completion & grid connection; (5) curtailment.
4/

In 2013, actual wind capacity factor in the U.S. was 32.1% (52.8% achievable), whereas in China it was 19.5% (49.2% achievable). Why did the U.S. do so much better? Much of the literature has focused on grid delay & curtailment, i.e. U.S. is better at using its built capacity.
5/

Study confirms. In US, developers only get paid when generating electricity, so they don't build "wind to nowhere." China offers incentives to build capacity itself & sometimes takes a year to connect completed projects to the grid. As w/ Ghost Cities, Field of Dreams approach
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U.S. has no grid delays, whereas in China they shave off 4.2 CF from installed capacity. Similarly, China curtails way more of its wind (-2.8 CF) than does the U.S. (-0.3). @east_winds does good wonky job explaining why (quota system, inter-province Tx)
mdavidson.org/papers/Davidso…
7/

Beyond these well-tracked explanations for why the U.S. more efficiently USES the wind it has, Huenteler et al point out that U.S. also has advantage in BUILDING more efficient wind capacity than China & points out (in)efficiencies of built capacity get locked in for 20+ years
8/

Much of this = U.S. siting in more wind-friendly areas. China's state-owned banks don't "require detailed wind resource assessments" as U.S. banks do, and again, Chinese developers face inefficient incentives to build capacity w/out fully considering generators' efficiency.
9/

Turbines themselves look like a wash on paper, with the U.S. having an advantage w/ height, offset by China having more efficient turbines. But U.S. fleet skews older & is growing more efficient more rapidly than China. Gold standard = Vestas V100/1800
thewindpower.net/turbine_en_552…
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Back-o-the-napkin analysis by Wind Power Monthly estimates that in 2013 a Vestas would run you EUR 967,742/ MW while China's Ming Yang 1.5MW turbine (shorter hub, less efficient) went for only EUR 397,692/ MW. Clearly China devs weighed cost/efficiency
11/
windpowermonthly.com/article/122842…

Good news = wind gets more efficient each year. Still, incentivizing MWs, all things equal, will lead to cheaper, less efficient MWs. Pg 10-13 here = China's wind incentive policies from 1994-2014. Relationships w/in China also favor local providers...
12/
iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/4…

These details might seem very dry and boring, and of course they are! But they add up to a splashy headline: China builds twice as much wind just to generate the same electricity as the United States. If we stop at the headlines, we learn nothing except "hah, dumb ol' China!"
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It's important to recognize how China's state-driven policies have led to the resulting efficiency gap b/w them & the more free market-driven U.S. Now, climate groups increasingly call for a U.S. WW2-style mobilization for clean energy, b/c markets are moving too damn slow...
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If we're going to do that, it's worth learning from China's mistakes before we (possibly) start our own government-driven rollout of capacity. As a famously effective public servant once said, “fools say that they learn by experience. I prefer to profit by others experience.”
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I'll never stop plugging this @JesseJenkins and @atrembath paper, persuasively arguing "it is increasingly difficult for the market share of variable renewable energy sources at the system-wide level to exceed the capacity factor of the energy source."
16/
theenergycollective.com/jessejenkins/2…

If we want wind to play a significant role our energy transition, we need to ensure we're building it in an efficient way. This paper offers a useful history and roadmap for how to make sure we don't fall into the central planners' trap of doing a bunch of work for nothing.
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