This is a super interesting piece, and it's fairly convincing that there's a high probability of gross misconduct by Trump or his inner circle. Still, there are only 3 main ways the Trump presidency ends: i) he resigns; ii) he's removed from office; iii) he loses re-election… 1/
The article doesn't really address the question of how much Congress, and how much voters, will be willing to put up with. Which is fine—it's a good piece. But one shouldn't be too confident that we're at the end-stages for Trump without a theory about the how politics work. 2/
Trump's problems have (IMO) become considerably more severe over the past 6 months. And yet, his approval rating hasn't worsened (it's actually improved by a point or two). The degree of Congressional resistance hasn't meaningfully increased. 3/
One can take this point too far. Public and Congress reaction to Trump scandals isn’t necessarily linear. Also, things could be different after the midterms. Reaction to earlier, more minor developments isn't necessarily predictive of the reaction if e.g. Trump fired Mueller. 4/5
I could probably be convinced by the thesis: "We've passed the point of no return: Trump is in enough hot water that Congress is almost certainly going to have to confront the question of impeachment." But I think it's highly uncertain how that confrontation would play out. 5/5
