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Aug 19 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
The road to 1982 didn’t start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed “demand push” inflation.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
The #Fed steadily fought the repeated bouts of inflation. The resulting #market #volatility pounded investors with repeated #bearmarkets and economic #recessions. By the end in 1974 valuations were 7x earnings.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Even if the #Fed does “pause,” such is far different than cutting rates to zero and restarting QE. Those actions would occur given an increase in financial instability, suggesting much lower asset prices in the process.
Maybe 1974 has something to tell us?
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image

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More from @LanceRoberts

Lance Roberts Profile picture
Aug 20
The #BullBearReport is out.
The #rally runs into resistance and backtracks as #overbought conditions slow the #bulls. Is the run over, or just resting? We review the #FOMC minutes, what it means for #investors, the #technical backdrop and #allocations.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e…
At 2-standard deviations above the 50-dma, and the 200-dma acting as resistance, the #market pullback, as discussed last week, was expected. Support levels reside just below between 4000 and 4160.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e… Image
Great note from BofA this weekend.
“Applying a 20th century PE of 15x gets you to an S&P500 index of 3300, applying a 21st century PE of 20x gets you to an S&P500 of 4400; there’s your range."
Problem: The drivers of the 21st century range are reversing.
realinvestmentadvice.com/fomc-minutes-e… Image
Read 5 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Jun 11
The #RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #rally that started 3-weeks ago ended abruptly as concerns of #inflation, the #Fed and rising #recession risk spooked #investors. With the Fed set to hike #rates next week, we increased hedges and cash last week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as…
After struggling at the 38.2% resistance level, #inflation, #recession risks, and the #Fed spooked #investors last week. #Market now retesting previous lows. Now back to short-term oversold, looking for a small bounce next week to add to #short #hedges.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
With the #Fed tightening their #balance sheet and hiking #rates, the 10-year yield is starting to top. Much like we saw in 2018, when the Fed breaks something, yields will fall quickly on the long-end (#yieldcurve inversion and #recession.)
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
Read 7 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Mar 25
A significant #bond #buying opportunity is approaching.
As bond yields surge, history and #techncial analysis suggest that we should look at bonds for both #capital appreciation and a #risk hedge.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
In Dec 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about 6% yields.
“Rates are at levels that historically led to some sort of event either economic, financial, or both, When that occurs, rates will go to 1.5% and closer to Zero.“
We got to 0.5%
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
The surge in 2-year #bond #yields is unprecedented. Historically, such a surge in short-term yields coincides with either #recessions or #market events. With yields now 4-std deviations above its 52-week moving average, such has denoted peaks previously.
realinvestmentadvice.com/surge-in-bond-…
Read 6 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
May 15, 2021
#RealInvestmentReport is out!
Despite the expected #surge in #inflation early in the week, #bulls picked themselves up to rally #stocks into Friday. We discuss the potential for a short-term #bounce, why the #Fed will make a #mistake, and #postioning now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
#LessonLearned - don't anticipate the turn in your #technicalsignals. As noted last week, it "seemed" the signal had turned, but it didn't. The #signal is very #oversold, so set up for a short-term #bounce is likely. Caution is still advised for now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
If we are #correct in our assessment about the roll-off #effect of #stimulus and #liquidity, we could well see #bonds outperform #stocks in 2022. We are watching very closely as we currently hold minimal duration in our fixed-income #portfolios.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
Read 5 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
May 14, 2021
#MacroView
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup” #demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
Read 7 tweets
Lance Roberts Profile picture
Jan 19, 2021
#TechnicallySpeaking - Signs of #exuberance warn of a #correction.
An update of #margin #debt is sending off warning signals that we haven't seen since the last corrective cycle. Also, why this is NOT a #new #bull #market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Repeat after me: March was not a #bearmarket.
‘Corrections’ generally occur over short time frames, do not break the prevailing trend in prices, and are quickly resolved by markets reversing to new highs."
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Reason 2 that March was not a #bearmarket
#Exuberance in terms of investors allocation to #equities takes years to recover following a real bear market.
realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-sp…
Read 7 tweets

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