Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ne02
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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
What is the best song about each swing state for tomorrow? Putting together a playlist
For #NCSen: Raise up! Take Your Shirt off, Twist it 'round your head! Spin it like a helicopter by @DaRealPetey
@DaRealPetey For #OHSen, a namesake song for @TimRyan's hometown, Youngstown, which is incidentally becoming redder and the song kind of explains the desolation that motivated the WWC to vote for Trump.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
It’s honestly quite amusing to see a Republican internal in Nebraska be at R+7, but if that’s anywhere near accurate, that’d also be decent news for Tony Vargas in #NE02 against Don Bacon, because it suggests he’s got a real shot.
You *do* expect undecideds to break R here; the question is by how much. Pillen probably wins these 60-40 at a minimum, but that still puts the race at around R+10, which puts Bacon in some actual danger.
(Those are not exactly amazing splits for Pillen with undecideds if only 54% are pro-photo ID and anti-abortion)
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Did you know that:
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
🧵👇
A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?
B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?
🧵👇
Co-sponsor: TED BUDD
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Race: #NCSen
Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
Race: #CA27
Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)
Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
🧵𝑻𝑯𝑹𝑬𝑨𝑫: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support 𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠).
Our @NE_Examiner team will have you covered tonight if you care about #Nebraska’s 2022 primary election.
@PaulHammelNE is headed to @CWHerbster’s shindig in Lincoln.
@cgonzalez_NE is headed to @votelindstrom’s party in Omaha.
I’m in Link and covering @jim_pillen’s deal here.
@PaulHammelNE is headed to @CWHerbster’s shindig in Lincoln.
@cgonzalez_NE is headed to @votelindstrom’s party in Omaha.
I’m in Link and covering @jim_pillen’s deal here.
If you’re new to following me, a word of warning, it might get busy with tweets tonight. I will try to live tweet what’s going on with results.
It can be a lot.
It can be a lot.
A little schedule primer for people reading election results. #Nebraska's most populous counties -- Douglas (Omaha), Sarpy (suburbs) and Lancaster (Lincoln) -- are going to be leading with early voting ballots returned by yesterday with the first results at 8p.
“We're going to elect Charles W Herbster--a good man, a very good man. He's going to be elected as your governor.”
Trump at rally endorsing Charles Herbster, candidate for Nebraska governor, despite 8 women accusing Herbster of groping.
Via @NE_Examiner: nebraskaexaminer.com/2022/04/14/gop…
Trump at rally endorsing Charles Herbster, candidate for Nebraska governor, despite 8 women accusing Herbster of groping.
Via @NE_Examiner: nebraskaexaminer.com/2022/04/14/gop…
Trump in Nebraska: "Disinformation. Remember the party of disinformation--and we have to say it because almost everything they say is false."
Trump defending Herbster & campaigning for him in the face of a multitude of accusations, mirroring his defense of Roy Moore. Tonight in Nebraska: “He’s been badly maligned, and it’s a shame…I defend people when I know they’re good.”
8 women have accused Herbster of groping.
8 women have accused Herbster of groping.
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
🤦♂️Several Nebraska Dems voted for the GOP's latest congressional gerrymander. Even though it isn't as bad as their map that split Douglas County, this one still makes #NE02 redder by putting the densest suburbs in Sarpy County with #NE01 & adding rural areas to the suburban #NE02
A more logical nonpartisan configuration would place Bellevue, which is the suburb nearest to Omaha's urban core, with #NE02 & make it even more urban/suburban, not less. This version would be 3-4 points bluer, which could make the difference in this hotly competitive district
I wonder if the GOP threatened to eliminate their filibuster rule & pass a more extreme gerrymander if some Dems didn't agree to this
NEBRASKA: Republicans control redistricting and hold a 3-0 monopoly on House seats, but it's high steaks nonetheless - Omaha's #NE02 has been highly competitive and Biden captured its lone Electoral Vote in 2020.
Pretty much the only way for the GOP unicameral to wrest #NE02 back into the red column would be to split Omaha. Adding the rest of Sarpy Co. (Bellevue) to #NE02 and moving Omaha's bluest precincts into #NE03 (below) would flip #NE02 from Biden +6 to Trump +1.
However, splitting up Omaha and diluting its Black vote could run into stiff opposition from civic groups & potentially courts. We'll see how it unfolds.
