Stephen Beban Profile picture
Nov 13, 2022 111 tweets 165 min read Read on X
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Real #AL02: R+17 PVI, Rep Barry Moore +40.1%
My AL-02: D+7 PVI, @PhyllisDHHall +8.2%
Population overlap: 36%
Created a majority-black district by consolidating Montgomery, and swapping conservative rural whites for more of the black belt and Mobile. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Connecticut
Biden 59.3% - Trump 39.2%
Real delegation: 5D
Gerrymandered: 5D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
#CT05 is 18% black; more comfortable margin for @JahanaHayesCT.
Made #CT03 minority-opportunity (27% Hispanic + 23% Black).… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Georgia
Biden 49.5% - Trump 49.2%
Real delegation: 9R-5D
Gerrymandered: 8D-6R
Δ Share of D seats: 36% => 57%
2 narrow R victories. But @lucymcbath might have saved #GA06 with incumbency instead of running in Hispanic-plurality #GA07.… ImageImageImage
Real #GA01: R+9 PVI, Rep Buddy Carter +18.4%
My GA-01: D+3 PVI, @WadeHerring_GA1 +5.8%
Population overlap: 66%
Still Savannah based, but swaps rural whites for Augusta. ImageImageImageImage
Real #GA10: R+15 PVI, Rep-elect Mike Collins +29%
My GA-10: D+2 PVI, @TJG4GA +2.9%
Population overlap: 39%
Combines Athens (University of Georgia), with some of the black belt counties; and picks up suburbs around Augusta and Atlanta in place of rural whites. ImageImageImageImage
Real #GA14: R+22 PVI, Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene +31.8%
My GA-14: D+1 PVI, @Marcus4Georgia +13.6%
Population overlap: 23%
Cracked MTG's rural base. Her unpopularity created a massive underperformance. Kept suburbs of Paulding County, while adding Fulton/Douglas/Cobb Dems. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Idaho
Trump 63.8% - Biden 33.1%
Real delegation: 2R
Gerrymandered: 2R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
Not very interesting this year, but #ID01 could get competitive over the decade (with suburbs from Moscow to Pocatello via Boise).… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Illinois
Biden 57.5% - Trump 40.6%
Real delegation: 14D-3R
Gerrymandered: 14D-3R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
However, my #IL17 is more blue trending. - Tried to save @RodneyDavis by pairing Reps Miller/Bost.… ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Indiana
Trump 57.0% - Biden 41.0%
Real delegation: 7R-2D
Gerrymandered: 7R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
Blue-trending suburbs should flip 3 seats this decade. - Sought to double bunk Pence & Banks in 3rd.… ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Iowa
Trump 53.1% - Biden 44.9%
Real delegation: 4RD
Gerrymandered: 2R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 0% => 50%
Sacrificed any chance in the #IA01 (red-trending Dubuque, Clinton, and Mason City) to make 2 D-leaning districts.… ImageImageImage
Real #IA01: R+3 PVI, Rep Miller-Meeks +6.8%
My IA-02: D+4 PVI, @BohannanIowa (but @LizMathis1 also resides here) +8.5%
Population overlap: 51%
Pairs Davenport and Iowa City with blue-trending Cedar Rapids and Waterloo, by trading away some white working-class towns. ImageImageImageImage
Real #IA03: R+3 PVI, Rep-elect Zach Nunn +0.7%
My IA-03: D+2 PVI, @Axne4Congress +8.5%
Population overlap: 74%
Instead of a swath of rural counties to the south of Des Moines, my third picks up blue-trending Ames and Marshalltown. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Kansas
Trump 56.2% - Biden 41.6%
Real delegation: 3R-1D
Gerrymandered: 2R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 25% => 50%
The blue trends in the suburbs (from Kansas City to Wichita) make me wonder if 3 Dem districts will be possible in a decade.… ImageImageImage
Real #KS02: R+11 PVI, Rep Jake LaTurner +14.8%
My GA-01: D+2 PVI, @PatrickforKS +11.5%
Population overlap: 33%
Retains Topeka, Emporia, and Junction City; but adds Wichita from the 4th, and Lawrence and Manhattan from the 1st, instead of rural counties. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Kentucky
Trump 62.1% - Biden 36.2%
Real delegation: 5R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-1D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
However, Biden narrowly won #KY06 in 2020. The suburbs from Cincinnati, Frankfort, Lexington, to Richmond are trending blue.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Louisiana
Trump 58.5% - Biden 39.9%
Real delegation: 5R-1D
Gerrymandered: 4R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 17% => 33%
While I was able to draw 3 black-plurality districts; Julia Letlow was just too strong in #LA05.… ImageImageImage
Real #LA01 (as #LA06 had no D candidate): R+23 PVI, Rep Steve Scalise +47.6%
My LA-06: D+5 PVI, @katie4louisiana +5.5%
Population overlap: 50%
Unified Baton Rouge, and unpacked some African Americans from the 2nd along the Mississippi river, in place of conservative whites. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Maine
Biden 53.1% - Trump 44.0%
Real delegation: 2D
Gerrymandered: 2D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
While the same outcome; adding blue-trending Coastal towns (alongside Augusta & Bangor) gives @golden4congress some breathing room.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Maryland
Biden 65.4% - Trump 32.2%
Real delegation: 7D-1R
Gerrymandered: 8D
Δ Share of D seats: 87% => 100%
Much like the struck-down map, this pulls #MD06's @davidjtrone out of the woods. But also produces a more surefire pick-up.… ImageImageImage
Real #MD01: R+11 PVI, Rep Andy Harris +15.9%
My MD-01: D+6 PVI, @heathermizeur +16.6%
Population overlap: 46%
Still picks up most of the Eastern Shore, but swaps northeast Cecil and Harford counties for blue suburbs of D.C. and Annapolis. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Massachusetts
Biden 65.6% - Trump 32.1%
Real delegation: 9D
Gerrymandered: 9D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
The only real interest will be in primaries, especially with Hispanic-opportunity #MA06, (#MA07 remains Black-opportunity).… ImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Michigan
Biden 50.6% - Trump 47.8%
Real delegation: 7D-6R
Gerrymandered: 9D-4R
Δ Share of D seats: 54% => 69%
This map flips 2 more seats around Detroit, while giving @HillaryScholten, @ElissaSlotkin, & @dankildee a bit of a buffer.… ImageImageImage
Real #MI05: R+15 PVI, Rep Tim Walberg +27.6%
My MI-07: D+4 PVI, @bartgoldbergmi5 (though @DebDingell might have run here) +8.4%
Population overlap: 38%
It swaps red rural counties along southern Michigan for Ann Arbor and its suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
Real #MI10: R+3 PVI, Rep-elect John James +0.5%
My MI-09: D+4 PVI, @MarlingaForMI10 +12.2%
Population overlap: 58%
Still centered around southeastern Macomb county. But replaces the red-trending white working class in the east for blue-trending high-ed suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Minnesota
Biden 52.4% - Trump 45.3%
Real delegation: 4D-4R
Gerrymandered: 6D-2R
Δ Share of D seats: 50% => 75%
#MN04 is closer; @AngieCraigMN's #MN02 is shored up. Made #MN05 majority-minority with precincts across the Twin Cities.… ImageImageImage
Real #MN01: R+7 PVI, Rep Brad Finstad +11.7%
My MN-01: D+4 PVI, @JeffreyEttinger +10.7%
Population overlap: 54%
The heart of the district is still Rochester & Winona. Replaces rural counties in the Southwest & along the Minnesota River Valley with parts of St Paul & its suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
Real #MN06: R+12 PVI, Rep Tom Emmer +24.4%
My MN-06: D+4 PVI, @hendricks2022 +7.5%
Population overlap: 48%
Retains Saint Cloud city, but swaps red exurbs for the blue-trending suburbs of Hennepin County. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Missouri
Trump 56.8% - Biden 41.4%
Real delegation: 6R-2D
Gerrymandered: 5R-3D
Δ Share of D seats: 25% => 38%
While Democrats only flipped 1 seat this cycle; they came within 3% of picking up #MO03 - a narrowly Biden-won district.… ImageImageImage
Real #MO02: R+7 PVI, Rep Ann Wagner +11.9%
My MO-02: D+6 PVI, @TrishForMO +13.3%
Population overlap: 68%
This reverses the Republican gerrymander, giving up rural Franklin and Warren counties to reclaim the suburbs of Saint Louis. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Hawaii
Biden 63.7% - Trump 34.3%
Real delegation: 2D
Gerrymandered: 2D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
As to be expected, nothing to see here.… ImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Mississippi
Trump 57.6% - Biden 41.1%
Real delegation: 3R-1D
Gerrymandered: 3R-1D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
Despite no change; this nearly backfired. Rural red-trends &/or low black turnout nearly cost @BennieGThompson his seat.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Montana
Trump 56.9% - Biden 40.6%
Real delegation: 2R
Gerrymandered: 1R-1D
Δ Share of D seats: 0% => 50%
A surgical gerrymander makes the difference.… ImageImageImage
Real #MT01: R+6 PVI, Rep-elect Ryan Zinke +3.3%
My MT-01: D+2 PVI, @MonicaTranel +4.4%
Population overlap: 57%
Add Billings and Helena to the Democratic vote centers of Missoula, Bozeman, and Butte. This swap makes up for Tranel's underperformance with the northwest Native vote. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Nebraska
Trump 58.2% - Biden 39.2%
Real delegation: 3R
Gerrymandered: 3R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
This traded away the chance to make #NE02 bluer, to make #NE01 closer and more blue-trending.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Nevada
Biden 50.1% - Trump 47.7%
Real delegation: 3D-1R
Gerrymandered: 3D-1R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
Used the #NV04 Reno-mander to shore up all 3 incumbents, and make #NV01 Hispanic-plurality.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #NewHampshire
Biden 52.7% - Trump 45.4%
Real delegation: 2D
Gerrymandered: 2D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
I balanced out #NH01 and #NH02 to shore up @ChrisPappasNH, even if it would not have mattered this cycle.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #NewMexico
Biden 54.3% - Trump 43.5%
Real delegation: 3D
Gerrymandered: 3D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
While partisanship is the same; I made #NM01 27% Native-opportunity district; and #NM02 Hispanic-majority.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #NorthCarolina
Trump 49.9% - Biden 48.6%
Real delegation: 7R-7D
Gerrymandered: 10D-4R
Δ Share of D seats: 50% => 71%
Got a clean sweep on my map, with @DonDavisNC (#NC01) and @wileynickel (#NC13) shored up.… ImageImageImage
Real #NC07: R+8 PVI, Rep David Rouzer +15.6%
My NC-07: D+1 PVI, @CharlesGrahamNC +2.9%
Population overlap: 57%
This district unites Fayetteville, and connects it to Wilmington via some rural black counties; cutting rural southeast and the Sandhills (including Robeson). ImageImageImageImage
Real #NC09: R+6 PVI, Rep Richard Hudson +13.4%
My NC-09: D+5 PVI, @SenatorClark +8.1%
Population overlap: 44%
Offsets the rural central North Carolina counties with blue-trending Research Triangle suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
Real #NC11: R+8 PVI, Rep-elect Chuck Edwards +9.5%
My NC-11: Even PVI, @JBeachFerrara +5.4%
Population overlap: 52%
Joins blue-trending Asheville and Henderson with the southwest suburbs of Charlotte, via Gastonia; cuts out the rural Western Mountains. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Ohio
Trump 53.3% - Biden 45.2%
Real delegation: 10R-5D
Gerrymandered: 8R-7D
Δ Share of D seats: 33% => 47%
Democrats came within a 1% of a majority of the delegation under my map, narrowly losing blue-trending #OH07.… ImageImageImage
Real #OH14: R+9 PVI, Rep David Joyce +23.7%
My OH-14: D+4 PVI, @mattkilboy +1.9%
Population overlap: 40%
There was enough strength in Youngstown, combined with the Cleveland suburbs, to get over the line (after jettisoning Ashtabula, Lake, and Portage counties). ImageImageImageImage
Real #OH15: R+6 PVI, Rep Mike Carey +14.4%
My OH-15: D+5 PVI, Gary Josephson +7.9%
Population overlap: 37%
Easy win by ditching the rural counties and wrapping around Columbus and up to the Delaware County suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Oklahoma
Trump 65.4% - Biden 32.3%
Real delegation: 5R
Gerrymandered: 4R-1D
Δ Share of D seats: 0% => 20%
Beyond the 1 flip, Tulsa-based #OK01 is trending blue, & #OK02 is my third highest Native American district at 25% (above AK).… ImageImageImage
Real #OK05: R+12 PVI, Rep Stephanie Bice +21.6%
My OK-05: D+1 PVI, @JHarrisTill +5.3%
Population overlap: 39% (but 65% of the old 5th)
The seat restores Oklahoma City, combining with Norman, rather than rural central Oklahoma. Can't hurt that @VoteKendraOK was running for Senate. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Oregon
Biden 56.5% - Trump 40.4%
Real delegation: 4D-2R
Gerrymandered: 5D-1R
Δ Share of D seats: 67% => 83%
I didn't leave any of the Democratic seats to chance (even if it means Republicans have a seat touching the Pacific coast).… ImageImageImage
Real #OR05: D+2 PVI, Rep-elect Lori Chavez-DeRemer +2.2%
My OR-05: D+9 PVI, @JamieforOregon +12.4%
Population overlap: 69%
May have had a different nominee (as Bend moves to the 4th). But Albany and the additional Portland suburbs likely still oust Schrader in the primary. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Rhode Island
Biden 59.4% - Trump 38.6%
Real delegation: 2D
Gerrymandered: 2D
Δ Share of D seats: No change
I preempted any risks by improving #RI02 from Clinton+7/Biden+14 to Clinton+16/Biden+21 - much safer for @SethMagaziner.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #SouthCarolina
Trump 55.1% - Biden 43.4%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 29%
The three most competitive districts are all trending-blue, even if only one of them flipped this cycle.… ImageImageImage
Real #SC01: R+7 PVI, Rep Nancy Mace +14%
My SC-01: Even PVI, @AnnieAndrewsMD +0.6%
Population overlap: 57%
Excised some of Lowcountry's ancestrally red exurbs, pulled in the core of Charleston and some black counties. But @JoeCunninghamSC's coattails may have made the difference. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Tennessee
Trump 60.7% - Biden 37.5%
Real delegation: 8R-1D
Gerrymandered: 7R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 11% => 22%
The competitive districts are all trending blue. Kept #TN09 majority-black by extending it from Memphis to Clarksville.… ImageImageImage
Real #TN05: R+9 PVI, Rep-elect Andy Ogles +13.6%
My TN-05: D+4 PVI, @Campbell4TN +11.5%, but @CoopForCongress would have run and won.
Population overlap: 40% (but 65% of the old 5th)
The Nashville base gets restored, instead of running into rural South Central Tennessee. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #WestVirginia
Trump 68.6% - Biden 29.7%
Real delegation: 2R
Gerrymandered: 2R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
Tried to save @RepMcKinley (his old constituents = 54% of #WV01); force Miller-Mooney primary (#WV02 = 49% Miller/37% Mooney).… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Wisconsin
Biden 49.5% - Trump 48.8%
Real delegation: 6R-2D
Gerrymandered: 5D-3R
Δ Share of D seats: 25% => 63%
Flips the delegation, while keeping #WI04 about 35% black.… ImageImageImage
Real #WI01: R+3 PVI, Rep Bryan Steil +10.5%
My WI-01: D+6 PVI, @AnnRoe4Congress +7.2%
Population overlap: 69%
Pulls away from more of the red exurbs around Milwaukee, and joins some of the suburbs of Madison to Janesville, Kenosha, and Racine. ImageImageImageImage
Real #WI03: R+4 PVI, Rep-elect Derrick Van Orden +4.0%
My WI-03: D+6 PVI, @pfaff4congress +7.2%
Population overlap: 61%
This seat is blue enough to withstand @RepRonKind's retirement, thanks to Eau Claire, La Crosse, and western Madison. ImageImageImageImage
Real #WI05: R+14 PVI, Rep Scott L. Fitzgerald +28.8%
My WI-05: D+6 PVI, @MikeVS62 +11.6%
Population overlap: 27%
Keeps Waukesha city, but loses the redder exurbs. Interestingly, picking up Southern Milwaukee makes the seat about 20% Hispanic. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Utah
Trump 58.1% - Biden 37.7%
Real delegation: 4R
Gerrymandered: 4R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
A close result in the new #UT02. But Democrats will have to hope Salt Lake City, its suburbs, and Provo are a bit bluer in 2024.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Arizona
Biden 49.4% - Trump 49.1%
Real delegation: 6R-3D
Gerrymandered: 7D-2R
Δ Share of D seats: 33% => 78%
Reversing the Republican pack of Phoenix and its suburbs more than flips the delegation.… ImageImageImage
Real #AZ01: R+2 PVI, Rep David Schweikert +0.8%
My AZ-06: Even PVI, @JevinHodge +3.3%
Population overlap: 71%
Swapping out some of the exurbs of Maricopa County for more of the urban core of Phoenix is enough to flip the seat. ImageImageImageImage
Real #AZ02: R+6 PVI, Rep-elect Eli Crane +8.4%
My AZ-01: Even PVI, @TomOHalleran +4.9%
Population overlap: 64%
This not only manages to save O'Halleran by swapping out Yavapai County for the suburbs of Mesa; it's also the second-most Native American seat of my maps (at 25%). ImageImageImageImage
Real #AZ06: R+3 PVI, Rep-elect Juan Ciscomani +1.0%
My AZ-02: D+3 PVI, @EngelForArizona +9.9%
Population overlap: 76%
This is much more like the district @Ann_Kirkpatrick gave up, with more of blue Tuscon instead of Casa Grande and Marana. ImageImageImageImage
Real #AZ05 (as #AZ08 had no D candidate): R+11 PVI, Rep Andy Biggs +19.3%
My AZ-08: R+1 PVI, @RamosAZ5 +1.1%
Population overlap: 64%
In the coup de grâce, even this narrowly R-leaning seat that Biden won stayed blue, by shifting south into more of the Phoenix suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Pennsylvania
Biden 50.0% - Trump 48.8%
Real delegation: 9D-8R
Gerrymandered: 11D-6R
Δ Share of D seats: 53% => 65%
This gives Dems more margin for error in their sweep. Plus made 2 seats Hispanic-opportunity (#PA02/25% & #PA07/29%).… ImageImageImage
Real #PA01: Even PVI, Rep Brian Fitzpatrick +9.8%
My PA-01: D+5 PVI, @ashley_ehasz +0.6%
Population overlap: 62%
Even Fitzpatrick's overperformance can't withstand losing the red-trending southern part of Bucks County (& sliver of Montgomery county) in favor of Philly precincts. ImageImageImageImage
Real #PA10: R+5 PVI, Rep Scott Perry +7.8%
My PA-10: D+2 PVI, @ShamaineDaniels +4.6%
Population overlap: 71%
Shaving off the rural parts of Central Pennsylvania allows us to add Lancaster City to Harrisburg and York. The suburbs are enough to sink Perry. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Virginia
Biden 54.1% - Trump 44.0%
Real delegation: 6D-5R
Gerrymandered: 9D-2R
Δ Share of D seats: 55% => 82%
A clean sweep of the (all blue-leaning) competitive races.… ImageImageImage
Real #VA01: R+6 PVI, Rep Rob Wittman +14.8%
My VA-07: D+5 PVI, @herb4virginia +7.8%
Population overlap: 44% (but 63% of the old 7th)
However, Rep @SpanbergerVA07 likely wouldn't have moved, as this keeps more of her suburban Richmond base. ImageImageImageImage
Real #VA02: R+2 PVI, Rep-elect Jen Kiggans +4.2%
My VA-02: D+4 PVI, @ElaineLuriaVA +7.9%
Population overlap: 68%
Cuts off the red exurbs southeast of Virginia Beach, and replaces them with bluer precincts of Norfolk and Chesapeake. ImageImageImageImage
Real #VA06: R+14 PVI, Rep Ben Cline +29%
My VA-06: D+1 PVI, @JenniferForVA +0.4%
Population overlap: 48%
Creates a very competitive seat for UVA (@LarrySabato's Crystal Ball) by pulling together blue cities in Eastern Virginia (Roanoke, Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, Lynchburg). ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Texas
Trump 52.1% - Biden 46.5%
Real delegation: 25R-13D
Gerrymandered: 19R-19D
Δ Share of D seats: 34% => 50%
Beyond picking up 6 seats; Dems have more room to grow: the GOP won 9 of 15 seats decided by <10% (most blue-trending).… ImageImageImage
Real #TX05: R+14 PVI, Rep Lance Gooden +30.4%
My TX-05: D+3 PVI, @TartishaH +3.4%
Population overlap: 43% (31% of the old 32nd)
Moves further into the suburbs of Dallas, ditching red rural counties. It's possible Rep @ColinAllredTX would have run here (though he won #TX32 by 4%). ImageImageImageImage
Real #TX10: R+13 PVI, Rep Michael McCaul +29%
My TX-10: D+2 PVI, @LNCongressTX_10 +0.3%
Population overlap: 42%
Connects College Station to more of Austin and its suburbs, instead of rural counties in central TX. Was just enough to flip this Hispanic-opportunity district. ImageImageImageImage
Real #TX15: R+1 PVI, Rep Monica De La Cruz +8.5%
My TX-15: D+10 PVI, @MichelleVforTX +11.9%
Population overlap: 61%
This pulls back from the red rural counties of the fajita strip, and picks up more of Hidalgo - keeping the Rio Grande Valley blue. (@RepGonzalez may have stayed). ImageImageImageImage
Real #TX21: R+13 PVI, Rep Chip Roy +25.8%
My TX-21: D+6 PVI, @PoderConClaudia +10.8%
Population overlap: 30%
Takes far more of Austin and its suburbs. Losing counties like Hays and Hill was too much for Roy to overcome. ImageImageImageImage
Real #TX23: R+5 PVI, Rep Tony Gonzales +17.2%
My TX-23: D+9 PVI, @LiraForCongress +11.6%
Population overlap: 25%
This shifts further into San Antonio, giving up the border counties. Gonzales would likely have shifted to the 27th, which has more of his exurban San Antonio base. ImageImageImageImage
Real #TX38: R+12 PVI, Rep-elect Wesley Hunt +28.1%
My TX-38: D+6 PVI, Duncan Klussmann +6.2%
Population overlap: 25%
Swaps some Houston suburbs to become plurality Hispanic. This bluer seat overlaps, but a majority of @Lizzie4Congress constituents are in the blue-trending #TX07. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Arkansas
Trump 62.4% - Biden 34.8%
Real delegation: 4R
Gerrymandered: 3R-1D
Δ Share of D seats: 0% => 25%
Votes aren't certified yet, but this map appears to have narrowly worked.… ImageImageImage
Real #AR02: R+9 PVI, Rep French Hill +24.9%
My AR-02: D+4 PVI, @DrQHathaway +0.2%
Population overlap: 63%
Little Rock and Pine Bluff combined with the Delta makes this a black-opportunity district. Though it's the whiter suburbs of Little Rock, Conway, and Bryant driving it left. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Colorado
Biden 55.4% - Trump 41.9%
Real delegation: 5D-3R
Gerrymandered: 7D-1R
Δ Share of D seats: 63% => 87%
This makes #CO08 more firmly Hispanic-plurality (43%), giving @YadiraCaraveo more breathing room; while flipping 2 seats.… ImageImageImage
Real #CO03: R+7 PVI, Rep Lauren Boebert +0.2%
My CO-03: D+3 PVI, @AdamForColorado +19.4%
Population overlap: 52%
With the real race conceded, we can see Boebert's extreme underperformance (much like MTG in GA-14). Boulder and Grand Junction are both moving the district left. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CO05: R+9 PVI, Rep Doug Lamborn +15.8%
My CO-05: D+1 PVI, @Cd5Torres +1.8%
Population overlap: 38%
Pueblo is a strong base of votes; but it's not trending left like Colorado Springs & the ski resorts. Lamborn may well have jumped to the 4th with the rest of El Paso County. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Florida
Trump 51.2% - Biden 47.9%
Real delegation: 20R-8D
Gerrymandered: 19R-9D
Δ Share of D seats: 29% => 32%
Republicans won 3 of the 6 seats decided by <5%; flipping a seat to partly offset the 2 they lost (even holding #FL27).… ImageImageImage
Real #FL03: R+9 PVI, Rep Kat Cammack +26.2%
My FL-05: D+7 PVI, @HawkforCongress +6.5%
Population overlap: 50%
Rep @AlLawsonJr likely runs in this 29% black-opportunity district. It combines his Tallahassee base with Gainesville. (Allows Jacksonville district to become 38% black). ImageImageImageImage
Real #FL13: R+6 PVI, Rep-elect Anna Paulina Luna +8.0%
My FL-13: Even PVI, @EricLynnFL +2.4%
Population overlap: 75%
One of the few Democratic overperformances in Florida - perhaps thanks to @CharlieCrist's home-base support in Saint Petersburg. ImageImageImageImage
Real #FL22: D+7 PVI, Rep @LoisFrankel +10.2%
My FL-21: D+2 PVI, Dan Franzese +0.1%
Population overlap: 74%
The first R-flip. I split Democrats in Palm Beach County too much, in an attempt to get a black-opportunity seat out of the 18th (parts of Port Saint Lucie to Delray Beach). ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #NewJersey
Biden 57.3% - Trump 41.4%
Real delegation: 9D-3R
Gerrymandered: 11D-1R
Δ Share of D seats: 75% => 92%
Tried to unseat Gottheimer in #NJ05 primary (24% Asian + 20% Hispanic). #NJ10 still plurality-black. #NJ12 now 32% Asian.… ImageImageImage
Real #NJ02: R+5 PVI, Rep Jeff Van Drew +19.0%
My NJ-02: D+5 PVI, @talexander_NJ02 +0.7%
Population overlap: 54%
Cuts out Vineland and white working class towns in Ocean and Atlantic counties, allowing Atlantic City to be combined with Camden and other Philly suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
Real #NJ07: R+1 PVI, Rep-elect Tom Kean Jr. +3.0%
My NJ-07: D+7 PVI, Rep @Malinowski +12.2%
Population overlap: 47%
This is still based in the Central Jersey suburbs, but swaps out rural and exurban Republicans for much bluer suburbs. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Washington
Biden 58.0% - Trump 38.8%
Real delegation: 8D-2R
Gerrymandered: 8D-2R
Δ Share of D seats: No change
Same overall result, but much more cushion in #WA03 & #WA08 + #WA05 was a toss-up. Also made #WA09 36% Asian-opportunity.… ImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #NewYork
Biden 60.9% - Trump 37.8%
Real delegation: 15D-11R
Gerrymandered: 19D-7R
Δ Share of D seats: 58% => 73%
Managed to salvage 4 seats, except surprisingly #NY24 (Zeldin + Tenney's incumbency was enough). #NY25 was a close call.… ImageImageImage
Real #NY01: R+3 PVI, Rep-elect Nick LaLota +11.8%
My NY-01: D+5 PVI, @bridgetmfleming +2.5%
Population overlap: 35%
Kept the northern coast of Long Island, but swaps the Hamptons and other eastern parts to pick up suburbs on either side of Long Island Sound. ImageImageImageImage
Real #NY17: D+3 PVI, Rep-elect Mike Lawler +0.8%
My NY-17: D+5 PVI, Rep @spmaloney +2.1%
Population overlap: 44%
Still based in Rockland County; but replaced lighter blue suburbs east of the Hudson River with deep blue Yonkers. But Sean Patrick Maloney's home is in my 19th. ImageImageImageImage
Real #NY19: Even PVI, Rep-elect Marc Molinaro +2.2%
My NY-19: D+4 PVI, Rep @JoshuaUE99 +7.0%
Population overlap: 27%
This is still based in the Hudson Valley, but picked up some blue cities in the lower Hudson Valley, instead of Ithaca and other parts of the Southern Tier. ImageImageImageImage
Real #NY22: D+1 PVI, Rep-elect Brandon Williams +1.0%
My NY-22: D+4 PVI, @FDConole +5.5%
Population overlap: 48%
Still based in the Syracuse suburbs, but picks up Ithaca and Binghamton, while losing urban Syracuse and red, rural parts of Central New York. ImageImageImageImage
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #California
Biden 63.5% - Trump 34.3%
Real delegation: 40D-12R
Gerrymandered: 41D-11R
Δ Share of D seats: 77% => 79%
Some D Hispanic underperformance: Rs won 7 of the 12 decided by <5%. (Also made #CA13 &#CA37 more black-opportunity).… ImageImageImage
Real #CA01: R+12 PVI, Rep Doug LaMalfa +24.0%
My CA-05: D+7 PVI, @MaxSteinerCA +4.9%
Population overlap: 42%
Combines Chico with wine country (particularly Santa Rota), while cutting out Yuba City and most of the Shasta Cascades. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA03: R+4 PVI, Rep-elect Kevin Kiley +7.2%
My CA-01: D+2 PVI, @DrKermitJones +4.5%
Population overlap: 46%
Still based in North Sierra Nevada around Lake Tahoe; but picks a dense tendril of Sacramento suburbs in place of the redder Placer County exurbs. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA13: D+4 PVI, Rep-elect John Duarte +0.4%
My CA-16: D+5 PVI, @AdamGrayCA +2.1%
Population overlap: 61%
Fairly similar, with Modesto, Turlock, and Merced. But shifts north to pick more of Tracy and Livermore, losing Madera and Los Banos. Just enough to flip the seat for Ds. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA21: D+9 PVI, Rep @RepJimCosta +8.0%
My CA-22: D+3 PVI, Michael Maher +2.8%
Population overlap: 63%
Shifted the district south, losing the northern suburbs of Fresno, and picking up Visalia, Tulare, ad Porterville - which was enough for this district to backfire. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA33: D+13 PVI, Rep @aguilarpete +15.4%
My CA-31: D+3 PVI, John Porter +0.7%
Population overlap: 31%
Overstretched the district's Hispanic voters in the San Bernadino suburbs, by losing the urban core and picking up Redlands, Moreno Val, and Temecula. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA38: D+14 PVI, Rep @LindaTSanchez +16.2%
My CA-39: D+5 PVI, Eric Ching +0.9%
Population overlap: 23%
Shifted this east, making this a more Asian-opportunity district than Hispanic, 37% Hispanic-35% Asian district. Also made it just competitive enough to flip to Rs. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA39: D+12 PVI, Rep @MarkTakano +15.4%
My CA-41: D+2 PVI, Aja Smith +3.0%
Population overlap: 64%
Combines Riverside with South Menifee and Murrieta, giving up the Morena Valley and Jurupa Valley. But yet another Hispanic underperformance cost a Dem seat. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA41: R+3 PVI, Rep Ken Calvert +4.6%
My CA-35: D+4 PVI, @WillRollinsCA +7.8%
Population overlap: 45%
This Corona and Lake Elsinore based district swaps out Menifee, Palm Desert, and Palm Springs, and instead picks up Fontana, Ontario, and Jurupa Valley. ImageImageImageImage
Real #CA48: R+9 PVI, Rep Darrell Issa +20.8%
My CA-42: D+2 PVI, @electhoulahan +0.5%
Population overlap: 32%
This still has the city of Escondido; but picks up Vista, San Marcos, and Imperial county, giving up Murrieta, Temecula, and southern San Diego County. ImageImageImageImage
Real national: 222R-213D
Gerrymandered: 266D-169R
Δ Share of D seats: 49% => 61%
Shows how district lines can change the results, even if not a single votes changes. @RepDonBeyer’s #FairRepAct would provide #FairMaps. #ElectionTwitter

See more @fairvote:… Image

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More from @StephenBeban

Dec 26, 2020
Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34

This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates.… @DrRyanPhd
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34

Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
FL: 17R-12D 3/34

State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
Read 44 tweets
Sep 23, 2020
Welcome to the #ArtOfTheGerrymander! 1/43

A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter

@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict…
2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).

NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
3/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Utah

First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 5D-11R-1?… ImageImageImageImage
Read 44 tweets
Mar 28, 2020
My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*

*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).

Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221

Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40…
NB: Methodology: I combined results by year-sets e.g. 2012-16 (Sen), and 2013-16 (Gov).

I used the wonderful to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
Read 42 tweets
Jan 30, 2020
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets

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