Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #obr

Most recents (8)

Why #Kwarteng should have sacked the #Governor of the Bank of England.

Kwasi #Kwarteng would not have realised, when he first announced his intention to be a tax-cutting, pro-growth, fiscally-responsible #Chancellor that he had immediately set in motion the daggers that would be thrust in his back 38 days later.
The Bank of England, guardian of the nation’s wealth and cornerstone of its economic management originally started life as a private company, funded by subscription under Royal Charter in 1694, as a means to finance the public purse, depleted by various wars.
Read 39 tweets
FYI, Richard Hughes (Chair of the #OBR) did *not* say yesterday that #Brexit has (already) shrunk the UK economy by 4%.

Instead, he repeated the OBR’s estimate that it will reduce long-run productivity by 4%, which is still just an *assumption*.

This needs some explaining… 🧵
The 4% focuses on the negative impact of a fall in trade, assuming both exports and imports are 15% lower in the long run (c.15 years) than if the UK had remained in the EU.

The evidence to date has not been enough to change the OBR’s mind, but it is far too soon to be sure…
Indeed, much of this evidence is hard to square with the assumption of a large and permanent #Brexit hit: goods trade with the EU and the rest of the world have performed similarly, services have held up well, and overall trade intensity now appears to be recovering...
Read 8 tweets
Who really runs this country now ?

@Conservatives Image
#Ready4Rishi & #Hunt call for tax increases and spending cuts which risk causing a spiralling recession plus worse 'austerity' than under Cameron & Osborne is all driven by an entirely arbitrary figure conjured up by the #OBR namely the £60 Bn 'black hole'

But ..
This gives the entirely false impression that there is some objectively measurable deficit in the public accounts which needs to be filled, resembling an overdraft on a personal bank account !

What matters is the debt/GDP ratio and #UK has the 2nd lowest in G7 after Germany

Read 4 tweets
Reflections on the morning after - and especially the markets… 🧵

It may well take some time for the dust to settle on #KwasiKwarteng’s first #Budget (yes, 'Budget’: if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it’s fair to call it a duck)...
The initial reaction from most economic commentators and in the financial markets has been a loud boo! There are some things I would have done differently. But the overall strategy is sound, and sentiment should recover as the economic benefits become clearer...
There are two aspects I particularly liked. One is the emphasis on breaking the ‘doom loop’ of weak economic growth and rising taxes, both with tax cuts and – at least as importantly – structural reforms on the supply-side...
Read 16 tweets
1994 stirbt Tochter Jasminka der Familie J. bei einem Brandanschlag auf eine Notunterkunft in Köln
2021 droht der Rom:nja-Familie J. die Abschiebung nach Serbien (1/3)
#GadjéRassismus #Abschiebung
Dragan J.:„Fast meine ganze Familie hat schwere Verbrennungen, meine Tochter ist gestorben und dann sowas. Da muss man das alles durchmachen und dann sagen die, ihr müsst wieder dahin zurück wo Krieg ist. Das ist eine Katastrophe“.(2/3)
#Spendenaufruf #Abschiebung #GadjéRassismus
Mehr als 27 Jahre: Abschiebeandrohung nach Serbien, Unsicherheit & ohne Gerechtigkeit
In ständigem Austausch & Rückkopplung mit der Familie organisiert die #OBR eine #Spendenaktion.
Unterstützen Sie die Familie J. jetzt mit einer Spende!
#Abschiebung #GadjéRassismus (3/3)
Read 3 tweets
FWIW, I’m relatively relaxed about the fiscal costs of #Covid: borrowing will drop sharply as the economy recovers, the #debt burden is manageable, and there’s no need for #austerity to pay for it.

But this isn’t a green light to abandon fiscal responsibility altogether… (1/12)
For a start, the long-term outlook is more worrying.

The #OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Report (July) includes scenarios where unchecked increases in public spending on health, adult social care and pensions could see debt balloon to more than 400% of GDP in 2070... (2/12)
In the meantime, even if the government doesn’t face the same financial constraints as a household, high public spending and borrowing still has other costs, including the poor allocation of resources and the risk of runaway #inflation… (3/12)
Read 12 tweets
FWIW, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the #OBR. There is a much more positive story than the Chancellor told in Wednesday’s #SpendingReview #SR20 📢

Let’s start with the near-term outlook… (1/8)
The #OBR assumes that the economic impact of #lockdown2 will be ‘three-fifths’ that seen during the first lockdown, when #GDP fell by 25% in March and April. This means that lockdown2 would take the level of #GDP back to 15% below its pre-Covid peak… (2/8)
Given that #GDP was 8.2% lower in September than February, and assuming little change in October, this is consistent with a fall of around 7% m/m in November, which is what’s in the #OBR’s ‘central forecast’. This seems about right to me... (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
#Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

01 - #Tories admit and apologise for a doctored, misrepresentative video of Kier Starmer. Tory MPs like @JohnnyMercerUK leave it on their feed and actively continue to spread.
@JohnnyMercerUK #Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

02 - #Tories Boris #Johnson gets booed out of Addenbrooke Hospital by staff and patients alike, unmentioned by #BBC, who were right there.
@JohnnyMercerUK #Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

03 - #Tories MP Jacob Rees Mogg blames #Grenfell victims for their own deaths. It takes him four days before he's forced to retract and apologise.
Read 61 tweets

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