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Jed Shugerman @jedshug
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Trump/Russia breakthrough explanation from @joshtpm:
One puzzle of the conspiracy has always its very strange bedfellows. Russia is aligned with Syria and Iran.
Saudi, UAE, and Israel are allied against Iran.
Why would Saudi and UAE work with Russia?
talkingpointsmemo.com/prime-beta/an-…
2/ UAE's leader MBZ "thought that there was a bargain to be struck: Ukraine for Syria. That’s actually one of the quotes verbatim in the piece. The logic is pretty straightforward. Russia gets a clean bill of health on its annexation of Crimea and ... an end to sanctions..."
3/ "In exchange, Russia pulls support from Iran, especially Iran in Syria. This would fulfill a key strategic goal of UAE, Saudi Arabia and critically Israel." In order to get a deal Ukraine for Syria, they needed the U.S. to lift sanctions. That's where a deal w/ Trump comes in.
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More from @jedshug see all

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Manafort and Veselnitskaya big-picture thread:
I think people are overrating the revelation that Manafort shared polling data with Russians...
But underrating the revelation that Manafort was working on "Ukraine peace plan" (i.e., sanctions relief) and links to Veselnitskaya. 1/
2/ Here's a version of the Manafort filing highlights slip-ups. We learn that Mueller has evidence that
A) Manafort shared polling data with Kilimnik (Russian agent)
B) Manafort discussed "Ukraine peace plan" with Kilimnik
*while* he was campaign manager.
documentcloud.org/documents/5677…
3/ Manafort sharing polling data with Kilimnik (and thus with Deripaska) in spring/summer 2016 doesn't look good, but by itself, I don't think it moves the needle much. Seems plausible that Manafort was just showing off his own usefulness by showing Trump had a chance to win.
Read 12 tweets
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This is not a fact check. It's a bad take, @AP @AP_Politics, a false check.
When two sides hit a budget impasse, they pass continuing resolutions to continue status quo as negotiations continue.
Shutdowns happen since 1995 only when one side refuses CRs to change status quo...
2/ In 1995, Gingrich & Dole refused to pass a status quo continuing resolution. Their CR included Medicare premium increases, environmental deregulation & a balanced budget requirement.
Clinton held out for status quo and negotiation.
Conclusion: GOP caused shutdowns for 5 weeks.
3/ The 2013 shutdown was similar: Obama, McConnell, and Boehner had a deal for the basic status quo with some cutts, but Sen @tedcruz and the tea party House members blew up that deal in order to defunding the ACA.
Conclusion: the GOP caused a shutdown for two weeks.
Read 6 tweets
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Veselnitskaya unsealed indictment on obstruction (Russian money laundering case):
"Veselnitskaya, the Russian lawyer who met with @DonaldJTrumpJr (and Manafort & @jaredkushner) at Trump Tower, represented Prevezon Holdings in a civil case..."
washingtonpost.com/world/national…
2/ "...in which SDNY prosecutors sought millions in forfeiture... & alleged in a civil complaint that a Russian criminal organization ran an elaborate tax refund scheme, stealing the identities of companies and filing sham lawsuits to incur fake losses for refund purposes."
3/ Full indictment here, which alleges that Veselnitskaya worked closely with "a senior Russian prosecutor" in Prevezon investigation, but "concealed [that fact] from the Court," and thus "obstructed the civil proceeding."
documentcloud.org/documents/5677…
Read 23 tweets

Related threads

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#Israel is expected to receive a total of 50 NEW FIGHTER JETS to make two full squadrons by 2024
The money for Air Force Deals is to come from a historic $38b. #US TAXPAYERS #MilitaryAid package to Israel in 2016, which came into force in Feb. of this year.jpost.com/Israel-News/A-…
Understanding #US Military Aid to #Israel
Breaking down the #MilitaryAid provided by the US Taxpayers to Israel.
NOT INCLUDED HERE👇🤨👉US$1.2b. #EconomicAid p/year and/or Tax-exempt donations from American donors to right-wing/extremist groups in Israel.
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Besides #US Taxpayers paying US$3.8Billion Military Aid Aid to #Israel in 2017, Private Donors also get tax cuts👇
#TheCentralFund is a well-known conduit for American donors seeking to make tax-exempt donations to right-wing & extremist groups in #Israel.
forward.com/news/national/…
Read 10 tweets
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Fascinating, in-depth reporting by @AP on the #Saudi-#UAE coalition’s complex dealing with #AQAP in #Yemen.

- Key thought: this is the challenge #AQAP (& Nusra/#HTS in #Syria) poses, by embedding into & reflecting broader local dynamics.

apnews.com/f38788a561d74c…
@AP #pt: Just like #HTS in #Syria, #AQAP in #Yemen is not a wholly contiguous organization of committed global jihadis - it's strengthened itself by embracing local drivers & structures.

=> That provides opportunities for counter-actors, but they require [some] engagement to do so.
@AP #pts: Another parallel to #Syria is seen in how the extent of localism embraced by #AQAP may in fact have weakened its long-term durability; by leaving large swathes of fighters vulnerable to cooptation by adversaries/rivals.

For more, see @Dr_E_Kendall:

Read 3 tweets
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THREAD

#Trump #Russia #HumanTrafficking #Prostitution #Conspiracy
1.A not revealed story pertaining to the @Comey letter is that public evidence prove that #Prince #Giuliani and #Trump conspired to "Lean" on #Comey to reopen the investigation into Hillary

#Trump #Russia #HumanTrafficking #Prostitution #Conspiracy

huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-dome… …
2.#Prince, #Giuliani, and #Trump conspired to lean and intimidate @Comey

#Trump #Russia #HumanTrafficking #Prostitution #Conspiracy

Read 72 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GolanHeight #Yemen #RT #separatist #Giuliani #Dubinin #Everytown #GOP #Arab #Russa #Trump #Chaer #SkripalCase #Hypocrisy #Saudi #Moscow #Qutaifa #Fascism #USA #Gorka #SDF #Barrack #Syrai #Hamedan #CIA

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