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Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
, 3 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
Fascinating, in-depth reporting by @AP on the #Saudi-#UAE coalition’s complex dealing with #AQAP in #Yemen.

- Key thought: this is the challenge #AQAP (& Nusra/#HTS in #Syria) poses, by embedding into & reflecting broader local dynamics.

apnews.com/f38788a561d74c…
@AP #pt: Just like #HTS in #Syria, #AQAP in #Yemen is not a wholly contiguous organization of committed global jihadis - it's strengthened itself by embracing local drivers & structures.

=> That provides opportunities for counter-actors, but they require [some] engagement to do so.
@AP #pts: Another parallel to #Syria is seen in how the extent of localism embraced by #AQAP may in fact have weakened its long-term durability; by leaving large swathes of fighters vulnerable to cooptation by adversaries/rivals.

For more, see @Dr_E_Kendall:

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#Saudi #UAE #AQAP #Yemen #HTS #Syria #pt #pts

More from @Charles_Lister see all

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There is a possibility of an announcement today. That’s if the collective U.S. government is unable to push back against #Trump - as it did earlier in the year after his comments in #Ohio.

More than anything, this is an extraordinary insult to the recent efforts of Amb. Jeffrey.
#pt: #Trump told #Turkey’s #Erdogan of his intentions by phone on Friday last week.

Coming in the context of Turkish threats to intervene in NE #Syria, the message to the #YPG/#SDF couldn’t be any worse. The US will abandon “the Kurds” again, if #Trump gets his way here.
#pt: Worse still, this’ll be music to the ears of #ISIS, #Assad, #Russia & #Iran.

#Trump isn’t only doing what #Obama did in leaving #Iraq prematurely, he’s doing it in an environment in which #America’s adversaries will benefit: jihadis, #Iran and #Russia.

Unbelievable hubris.
Read 10 tweets
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My goodness: here's a prime example of policy advocacy on #Syria based either on ignorance, or [hopefully not] malign intent.

This is *riddled* with inaccuracy & misinformation.

@steelejourno says the West should force an opposition surrender in #Syria:

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@steelejourno #pt: @steelejourno says the US, UK & #France are “less honorable” in seeking to delay #Syria & #Russia’s “success” in regaining territory.

- They seek to enable a meaningful political process, in which there’s an opposition entity to sit at the table. I’d say that is honorable.
@steelejourno #pt: Here, @steelejourno says UK, US, France & "Gulf Arab monarchies” want ceasefires to protect rebels, not civilians.

In #Idlib, nothing could be further from the truth. None of those countries have *any* ties to rebel groups in #Idlib, who only equal ~0.5% of the population.
Read 10 tweets
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Absolutely extraordinary.

#Syria’s air defense systems have no way to determine “friend” from “foe.” #Russia doesn’t export that tech.

Within a complex & unpredictable environment, that raises the risk to civilian aircraft
significantly.
#Israel says #Syria’s air defense fired “dozens” of anti-aircraft missiles from several batteries across the country over the space of 40-mins… *after* #IAF planes had returned to #Israel.

One took down #Russia’s IL-20.

timesofisrael.com/syria-fired-mi…
To me, this looks like messaging more than a truly dramatic change in reality/dynamics:

- S-300s already deployed in #Syria.

- #Israel (& US) uses encrypted radar/GPS; less vulnerable to counter-measures

- #Russia has been “jamming” for 2+ yrs.

- #Israel fires most from Med.
Read 5 tweets

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In order to truly understand the dynamic inside the #Syrian Armed Opposition, one must start to look into the ever closer marriage between the the Moslem Brotherhood and Nusra / al-Qaeda. Both have been joined at the hip through the sponsorship & support of #Qatar #Turkey ==>
2-Moslem Brotherhood (MB) lost its original military wing during the battle with the Syrian State in the 80’s. Best to think of Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda in #Syria today as the new military wing of the M Brotherhood. One is the brain, the other represents arms & legs of the same body
3-The coordination between MB & Nusra/HTS/al-Qaeda has afforded the latter the chance to transform itself from non-state actor that had been hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan to an outfit with clear lines of communications to regional capitals that are supporting the MB
Read 16 tweets
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Hours ago, a Saudi-UAE airstrike killed at least 29 children in Yemen. Their campaign gets refueling from American planes & streams of US intelligence to help it pick targets--ostensibly to avoid calamities like this. But don't hold your breath for the US to take responsibility.
The line the government is giving reporters (like "I don't know if we'll ever know" about US role to @AlexWardVox) is consistent with what it's said under Obama, who first authorized US assistance for the Saudis & UAE in Yemen, and its increasing obfuscation under Trump.
In March, I got hold of a document that shows this is the Pentagon line even in private: huffingtonpost.com/entry/pentagon…

They say they have no way to know if US support aids war crimes--but concurrently US support should continue because otherwise there would be war crimes.
Read 9 tweets
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Lets be CLEAR here
There is NO ceasefire
#Saudi #UAE #UK #US #HRW #EU #UN #UNSC #Yemen #YemenCrisis

Here is why👇👇
Here is some of #Saudi #UAE led CO violation of the ceasefire on 15/DEC/2015 1st pic.
#Yemen #UK #HRW #EU #UN
👇👇👇👇
#Saudi #UAE violations of the ceasefire on the second day 16/12/2015 in #Yemen #YemenCrisis
#UN #UNSC #HRW
#UK #US
Read 27 tweets

Trending hashtags

#France #RNC #alQaeda #Saudi #LaNanaPelucas #Turkey #Jordan #KafrZita #Afghanistan #Hypocrisy #censored #Rational #Embassy #IranOutOfSyria #Palestine #SNC #Syria #Kahshoggi #USA #pressfreedom #lies #CoalitionProgress #Kuwait #Iranians #ModerateRebels

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