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Seth Abramson @SethAbramson
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(THREAD) Per Vanity Fair, Stone received a link to millions of dollars' worth of stolen Clinton data from Guccifer (data he knew was stolen and which Guccifer directed him to because Stone had engaged him on the subject of stolen data). Did he send the *link* to Trump's campaign?
1/ Here's the article, which explains how Guccifer got before top Trump advisor Roger Stone's eyes, months before Election Day in 2016, information which, "if this [the 2016 election] was a war...the map to where all the troops are deployed."…
2/ Stone's attempts to defend himself on TV rather than shutting up and letting his attorneys do their jobs backfired bigly yesterday—per usual. Stone's first misstep was trying to say that the indictment didn't make reference to his emails with Guccifer when it was clear it did.
3/ Stone's basis for saying the indictment didn't mention him was that it referenced someone in touch with Trump campaign officials, which Stone said—as of August '16—he wasn't. By saying that, he opened the door to the truth—which his mentee Sam Nunberg later helpfully supplied.
4/ At the time he was "fired" by Trump, many speculated (and Stone even intimated) he'd been fired so that he had more leeway to engage in the behaviors he wanted to (usually referred to in politics as "dirty tricks") without it redounding to the detriment of the Trump campaign.
5/ But Stone stayed in touch with Trump himself—as did many of those Trump fired, including Flynn, Manafort, and Lewandowski—even if the changing of the guard atop the campaign (with Bannon taking over) meant by late summer 2016 Stone *didn't* have much access to top Trump aides.
6/ So Stone's fruitless attempt to pretend the indictment didn't mention him—which he dropped when it became clear the indictment quoted his Twitter messages to Guccifer verbatim—only underscored that if he was in touch with Trump's campaign in August 2016 it was with *Trump*.
7/ So Stone was fired by Trump and thus freed to engage in his usual—self-described—"dirty tricks." But he still wanted to prove himself useful to the man he thought would be POTUS. So he writes Guccifer and gets what he wants: a link to millions in stolen data. Does he share it?
8/ Stone has a history of parsing his words semi-carefully when he knows he's done wrong—his preference is to avoid outright lying and opt for mere dissembling instead. Yesterday he said he passed "nothing" ("no thing") on to the Trump campaign from Guccifer. Is a link a "thing"?
9/ Any investigator listening to Stone's defenses yesterday would presume (a) Stone was in touch with Trump and members of the Trump family in mid-2016; (b) Stone received a link from Guccifer as Vanity Fair said in 2017; (c) Stone passed that link on to Trump or a family member.
10/ But there's another odd fact here that some may overlook—and that I think is critical to closing the circle (and perhaps Mueller closing his legal jaws) on Stone. It involves Aaron Nevins, the obscure Florida political consultant who somehow ends up in the middle of all this.
11/ Nevins has all the signs of being a Trump campaign cut-out—much like Carter Page was, much like Rob Goldstone was for the Agalarovs (and thus the Kremlin), much like Artemenko was for Putin, much (even) like Michael Cohen was for Trump himself. I think Nevins is the key here.
12/ Why in the *world* was Mr. Aaron Nevins—an *obscure* political consultant—suddenly caught up in the middle of an international spy scheme, when *no other political consultant in America* was in touch with Guccifer to ask "him" for stolen materials regarding the 2016 election?
13/ Well, "no other political consultant" except Stone, that is.

So: two political consultants. Both Republicans. Both are from... Fort Lauderdale, Florida. They appear to know each other. And Guccifer gives this local consultant... Clinton campaign documents? Something's fishy.
14/ The Fort Lauderdale political community is pretty small—one of Stone's lawyers yesterday told me he knows Nevins personally. What are the chances, of all the political consultants in America, one who knows Roger Stone asks Guccifer for *national* data which he then publishes?
15/ So Nevins asks Guccifer for data he wouldn't really have needed or thought Guccifer would have, gets mysteriously given way more than he ever could use, mysteriously publishes it online (opening himself up to criminal charges), then Guccifer conveniently gives Stone the link?
16/ This sounds to me like Stone telling Guccifer he won't receive any "thing" from him directly but has a cut-out available—an aspiring GOP consultant who wants to get in good with Big Players—who'll then publish the data online so Stone (and Trump!) can be given the link to it.
17/ I just can't see ANY OTHER REASON for Nevins to publish the stolen data at great danger to himself. Or for Guccifer to send Stone a link to Nevins' blog rather than just giving Stone the data directly. Or why Nevins and Stone are from the same small city and political circle.
18/ I just can't see ANY OTHER REASON for Nevins to be the only political consultant besides Stone seeking data from Guccifer—certainly the only *local* consultant, as there's no real reason for Nevins to have thought Guccifer's data would be particularly useful in a local race.
19/ I just can't see ANY OTHER REASON for Stone trying to distance himself from events and indictments he says prove he did nothing wrong. I can't see ANY OTHER REASON for all his word-parsing suggesting he was in touch with Trump and may have forwarded him a link but not data.
20/ Is Nevins someone who undergoes ethical lapses? I don't know—has he recently been *fired from his job* for ethical lapses? Let's see:…
21/ I was an investigator—then a criminal defense attorney—and I've met Roger Stone types before. They think they're smarter than they are—smarter than their lawyers and police—and believe they can orchestrate events so they get what they want without any chance of being caught.
22/ Stone quit the campaign to take the spotlight off him; stayed in touch with Trump backchannel (as Trump's shady allies do); and approached Guccifer *knowing* there was a way for him to use a cut-out to get Guccifer to publish data online Stone could then get to Trump by link.
23/ Doing *all this* would let Stone say:

1. I wasn't on the campaign
2. I wasn't in touch with officials
3. I spoke to Donald but he's a pal
4. I had no campaign role
5. I never received a "thing of value" from Guccifer
6. I wasn't directed to do anything
7. I did nothing wrong
24/ As to whether all this would be worth it for Stone/Trump, consider that (a) neither *really* thought Trump would win (i.e. they didn't think anyone would *ever* be looking at their private actions), so (b) the amount of ass-covering they did here would have seemed sufficient.
25/ Plus the data Nevins got was worth "millions" (VF)—and was way more than Nevins could have used, it seems. But the *most* telling line in the VF article is this one: "[Nevins] quickly realized the data he had received was even more valuable than Guccifer 2.0 likely realized."
26/ Really? *Russian intelligence*—the *entire hierarchy* of the GRU—*didn't know the value* of the the *intelligence* they sent to Nevins? And it *accidentally* turned out to be worth *millions*? And they then *coincidentally* sent the link to a good pal of Donald Trump? *Nope*.
27/ I don't believe Stone's account of how this went down—and I don't think Mueller does either. And I think either Nevins has already spoken to Mueller—which is why both Stone and Nunberg seem to think Stone will be indicted—or they're going to threaten his ass into cooperation.
28/ If *anyone* was in touch with Nevins before he wrote Guccifer—I don't care if it was the *guy who licks envelopes at a Trump campaign office in Tampa Bay*—Mueller will be all over it and see this ruse for the flimsy two-bit buffoonery it was. I believe Stone will be indicted.
29/ Stone and Nunberg both seem to aver the initial charge would be Making False Statements, if it comes, but what I've described in this thread is what I think Mueller is after—and it's particularly juicy precisely *because* Stone was in touch with Trump but not other officials.
30/ And never forget the *bizarre* caginess we saw at the time Stone quit/was fired from the campaign—almost as though no one was able to explain how or why it happened, which fits with the idea it was (crucially) a *campaign ploy* to let Stone freelance.…
CONCLUSION/ With the DCLeaks/Don Jr. revelation from the indictment, as well as the unnamed Congressman, and now Guccifer/Stone threads to pull on, it's becoming clear yesterday's indictment *is* pointing us toward future indictments of Americans close to Trump. Stay tuned. /end
NOTE/ There's increasing suspicion the unnamed Congressman in the Mueller indictment is from Florida. I'd note that Congressman Matt Gaetz is a known Trump agent, knows Roger Stone and is a representative from Florida. I think a picture is coming together.…
NOTE2/ To be clear, Stone says he didn't talk to Nevins in '16 and Gaetz and Nevins aren't allies—Nevins dumped oppo on Gaetz in '17 via his anonymous Florida politics blog. The "picture" I was referring to was Florida being a Trump base of operations in the Trump-Russia affair.
NOTE3/ In other words, in the same way the effort to blackmail Jim Comey into reopening the Clinton case in October '16 runs through colorful characters in one of Trump's bases of operation—NYC—so much of the Russia story seems to run through another Trump power base, in Florida.
ADDENDUM/ See this new thread below on Aaron Nevins for more information on this bizarre Florida-politics character and possible Trump/Stone co-conspirator:
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