The shakedown: If Barnier holds his nerve, he may force a total UK surrender - but only at the cost of a Brexiteer PM and Brexit 2.0 down the line. My take on the increasing chances of 🇳🇴 now, WTO later unless Barnier *and* the Brexiteers compromise politico.eu/article/michel…
The problem:
1. May can’t survive either of Barnier’s 2 options (GB-only FTA or 🇳🇴+)
2. Barnier and Brexiteers say they can’t accept May’s 3rd way
3. By law “no deal” needs consent of MPs. V unlikely
4. Election on May deal v unlikely. Splits Tory party
5. Referendum ruled out
1. May can’t survive either of Barnier’s 2 options (GB-only FTA or 🇳🇴+)
2. Barnier and Brexiteers say they can’t accept May’s 3rd way
3. By law “no deal” needs consent of MPs. V unlikely
4. Election on May deal v unlikely. Splits Tory party
5. Referendum ruled out
Solutions:
1. Delay Brexit (doesn’t solve issue)
2. Abandon Brexit. No majority.
3. Abandon May strategy, surrender to Barnier just to get out. Temporary EEA*
*May cannot abandon own strategy. Requires Nixon to China: Brexiteer pursuing Brexit In Name Only before real Brexit
1. Delay Brexit (doesn’t solve issue)
2. Abandon Brexit. No majority.
3. Abandon May strategy, surrender to Barnier just to get out. Temporary EEA*
*May cannot abandon own strategy. Requires Nixon to China: Brexiteer pursuing Brexit In Name Only before real Brexit
If May’s compromise plan is either rejected by Brussels *or* Westminster, 🇳🇴 more likely than “no deal” because it’s the only thing likely to carry an 🚨emergency majority🚨
Irony: this may not be the best long term option for Brussels. Prolongs crisis, “Vassalage” as even some anti-Brexit Tories call it, may not be sustainable. Could lead to likely 2022 showdown between “full Brexit” Tory govt and “renegotiate EEA” Labour
Then again, EEA was always supposed to be temporary. UK could end up in permanent temporary half way house.
