Learning a lot about communication on twitter by reading through comments. As livelihoods are at stake and craziness abounds: a very very short thread linking things together with regard to post-Brexit trade in a no-deal scenario.
1) Will all trade stop? The sky turn dark? Will there be the horsemen of the apocalypse or will it be too hot for horses? None of the above: trade with the EU will change from intra-EU trade to trading with the EU as a third state
2) The rules underlying this third-state status are WTO rules. Hence it’s referred to as the “WTO option”. If you want to know how the UK will be treated look at how the EU trades with countries with which it does not have a free trade agreement.
3) Trade under these conditions is perfectly feasible. But also much more expensive and complicated than under the current conditions.
4) WTO law will not force the EU to treat the UK as it does now. See my two previous threads in that regard.
5) So: what we have is a change of the terms of trade from intra to extra-EU. How to prepare for that, what do you need to know if you are actually trading? The EU has published preparedness notices. The Irish and Dutch government also have good information documents.
6) But the UK already trades with the US without a problem, so all is golden, right?
7) No. Currently we trade with the EU under better conditions. They will worsen significantly. That causes economic disruption.
8) I am, at times, confused by some of the arguments, I confess.
9) We don’t want to be a member state of the EU. In fact, we want to get out. But we get upset when the EU then says: ok, so if there’s no deal, we will treat you as we treat non-member states.
