1/ A couple of misconceptions about Brexit and the WTO, including one just repeated on @mrjamesob program.
James quoted the length of time it took countries like Russia to join (Accede) to the WTO as an indicator of how difficult things will be for the UK. That's misleading.
James quoted the length of time it took countries like Russia to join (Accede) to the WTO as an indicator of how difficult things will be for the UK. That's misleading.
2/ Countries join the WTO to gain MFN access into the markets of all WTO Members and to have a voice in shaping global trade rulemaking. To get in, they have to buy off every existing Member with liberalization commitments.
The UK is already a WTO Member.
The UK is already a WTO Member.
3/ Accessions take a very long time because they cover every aspect of a Members current and future trade regime, and often require sweeping legal and regulatory changes.
The process often gets largely suspended for decades as governments put it in the 'too hard basket'.
The process often gets largely suspended for decades as governments put it in the 'too hard basket'.
4/ Refusing to allow the WTO to 'certify' the UK Schedule, as some WTO Members have done does not kick the UK out of the WTO, suspend its rights or impact trade.
It just means those Members still have concerns about the UK schedule and reserve the right to complain about it.
It just means those Members still have concerns about the UK schedule and reserve the right to complain about it.
5/ The UK's current draft schedule replicates the EU's exactly, except where it splits previous quotas. As James' guest pointed out, there may be places where the UK may want to make changes.
That's allowed under WTO rules and there are procedures to handle it.
That's allowed under WTO rules and there are procedures to handle it.
6/ There is also often an implication if a country has indicated opposition to the UK draft schedule, that means they won't be willing to do an FTA with the UK.
That's not certain. In fact, an FTA could potentially resolve some of the issues NZ/AUS have with the UK's quotas.
That's not certain. In fact, an FTA could potentially resolve some of the issues NZ/AUS have with the UK's quotas.
7/ I think my views on the risks of WTO-Only Brexit are pretty widely known. I would urge however keeping the eye on the true danger (the mechanics/practicalities of trade with the EU).
When it comes to No deal Brexit, the UK has 99 problems but their WTO schedule's a minor one.
When it comes to No deal Brexit, the UK has 99 problems but their WTO schedule's a minor one.
