Thread by @startupdaemon

1) If you're on Twitter and have a pulse, you must have heard of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

But do you know the Trump Doctor Heuristic?

This THREAD will show you how TDH can help you vet crypto scams – and other forms of BS thirsty for your money.

2) The gentleman in the picture is Harold Borstein, D. J. Trump's doctor before the latter became US president.

I'd prefer him to other doctors with the same credentials because he DOESN'T "look like a doctor" and I'm not the only one.

The @nntaleb has said the same many times.

3) Plot twist! The fundamental signal is CONSENSUS and pandering to it – about how things should *appear* to be, about mass/mimetic appeal.

What has survived DESPITE the mimetic consensus is more likely to have superior functional value.

4) Twist on the plot twist: You can turn the signal on its head to fish for value in complex situations where you can't know if something works.

The Trump Doctor Heuristic comes handy in vetting obscure altcoins in crypto. Because even crypto "experts" don't know if they "work".

5) Which shitcoins are least likely to be hyped-up BS? Those looking like D. J. Trump's former doctor.

Look for anti-consensus & anti-mimesis.

▶️ If you hear a lot about the coin, but the founders are nondescript nerds who can barely say their names, let alone sell anything.

▶️ If the founders aren't spending on yachts, models and other gimmicks to market their corn, but it's making a splash.

▶️ If shitpoasters on crypto Twitter and crypto insiders who hate each other offline value the corn highly.

▶️ If the shitcoin isn't listed on many major exchanges, but where it's listed there's loads of sound volume & higher prices.

▶️ If competitors expend a lot of time and money hating on the cryptocoin, although they have a much larger market cap/ownership base etc.

Obviously, there are no guarantees. The best scam artists know how to cover their tracks and appear downright naive.

So this is NEITHER investment NOR speculation advice!

But the Trump Doctor Heuristic might just be enough to help you avoid being hoodwinked by some noobs.

6) Now consider this.

If a person doesn't fit consensus public appearance but has many rich, powerful, smaht people about, maybe you should make an effort to get to know that person, shouldn't you?

Give it a think or two.

BONUS:

My favorite indicator for something being fraudulent or overvalued is if it appears on MSM front pages and is widely endorsed by quackademics and unjailed white-collar criminals. Like Theranos.