There's been a lot today on the people's vote, and on remainers' attitude to Brexit. Much of it is rather difficult to make sense of. I think the issues are quite simple. Thread. 1/
A slim majority in 2016 voted for Brexit. We do not know why, or indeed for what. It is safe to assume that they voted for Brexit because they believed that their economic and politicial situation would be improved. 2/
Since 2016, the Govt has been negotiating with the EU; to settle the UK's withdrawal, and to sketch out the future relationship. Progress has been slow. The Withdrawal Agreement (and with it transition) needs a solution to the Irish border, to respect the GFA. 3/
The lack of progress cannot be said to be remainers' fault. They have argued that Brexit will not be positive, and the evidence suggests they were right. The fault surely lies with the Govt, and with other groups who have failed to produce a compelling Brexit vision. 4/
So... where do we go from here? More and more people, including many remainers, seem to be clamouring for a people's vote. 5/
Some, call for a vote 'on the deal'. But we do not (yet) know whether there will be a deal, or what form that deal might take. 6/
Some, have called for a three way vote: the deal (again assuming there is one), no deal, or remain. Some do not want either no deal, or remain, on the table. 7/
I (and I suspect that this is an unpopular view) am unconvinced by these calls. The key question of substance is what relationship the UK wants to have with the EU. All sides should be setting out their Brexit vision. 8/
We will soon see whether the Govt manages to reach an agreement with the EU. We will then see whether the deal commands support in Parliament. 9/
Changes may be made as the WA makes its way through Parliament, and as UK legislation to implement the agreement is adopted, to respond to Parl's concerns. 10/
It is possible that a deal will be agreed, and that it will be supported. In that case, Brexit will, against the odds, have succeeded. 11/
But it is also possible, either that there will no deal, or that the deal will not command support in Parliament. 12/
In that case, Brexit as a project will have failed. At that point, Article 50 should be revoked. Those wanting to make the case for Brexit will have to start again. 13/
I guess it is possible to argue for a people's vote; either to endorse (or not) Parl's endorsement of the deal, or to endorse (or not) the revocation of Article 50. But I am unconvinced that it would be needed in either scenario. 14/14
