Profile picture
Kaz Weida @kazweida
, 10 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
This #SundayMorning we're delving into a question that's on everyone's mind these days. With only 51 days left until midterms, the forecast for Dems to take the House is looking pretty sunny.

Is it possible for Dems to take the Senate as well?
(Thread)
(2) First off, anything is possible. Trump wasn't favored to win the Presidency either and here we are. I guess the real question becomes is it likely for Dems to take the Senate in the upcoming midterms.

The answer is NO. It's not likely.
Here's why.

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
(3) To take the Senate, Dems would need to hold onto every single seat they currently have, including 10 Dem senators in states Trump won by huge margins like West Virginia and North Dakota.

Senators in the most trouble? Nelson, Heitkamp, and McCaskill.

vox.com/policy-and-pol…
(4) It's not enough to keep every Senate seat. Dems would need to flip an additional 2 seats. @FiveThirtyEight gives Dems a 1 in 3 chance of taking the Senate.

Who has the best chance of flipping a seat?
Let's look at what the polls are saying.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-e…
(5) Currently, the following GOP held seats are rated a toss-up by @CookPolitical :

NV: Heller vs. Jacky Rosen (@RosenforNevada )
TN: Blackburn vs. Bredesen (@PhilBredesen )
AZ: McSally vs. Sinema (@RepSinema )

There's also one more race to watch. TEXAS.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
(6) Defeating Ted Cruz would be a huge upset and @BetoORourke has been consistently gaining ground. Every time we look at the polls, Cruz's lead slips further. Beto started the summer down double digits

He's now within 4 points of the Texas incumbent.

vox.com/2018/9/12/1784…
(7) Finally, beyond the polling and projections, experts and political analysts have made one thing very clear. There is no model for what is happening in midterms this year. Voter turnout for the primaries has been unprecedented.

The blue wave is real.
cnn.com/2018/09/16/pol…
(8) Could the overwhelming rush of young voters, independents, and historic Dem turnout bring both houses of Congress within grasp of Democrats?

It's unlikely but it's possible.
And while it's a heavy lift, Americans understand it's imperative to take our country back. NOW.
(9) What can you do? Help Nelson & Heitkamp hang onto their seats. Support @RosenforNevada and @PhilBredesen . Most of all, push for historic midterm turnout.

Dems chance of winning the Senate is the same as Trump's chances were of winning in 2016.

Let's get it done.
(END) Thanks to @Capeters321 for the #SundayMorning thread suggestion. Come back next week for another deep dive into the week's headlines.

Cheers!
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Kaz Weida
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#SundayMorning

More from @kazweida see all

Profile picture
Tonight, you’ll hear Trump address the nation about his immigration crisis.
Despite his lies, Trump is right about one thing.

We do have a crisis on our border.
A humanitarian crisis involving the mass incarceration of families seeking asylum.
#BoycottTrumpPrimeTime

(THREAD)
(2) First, let’s address Trump’s manufactured crisis.

In 2017, immigrants entering illegally at the southern border hit their lowest level in 46 years.

America’s current immigration rate is net zero since more people leave than currently enter.

washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…
(3) In fact, recent government data confirms that most of the illegal immigration that occurs in this country doesn’t come across the Mexican border at all, but from those overstaying their visas.

cnbc.com/2019/01/08/des…
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
This #SundayMorning Trump has reiterated his threats to declare a national emergency and bypass Congress to build his border wall.

Can Trump abuse his executive powers in this way and what, if anything, can be done to stop him?

#SundayThoughts #SundayMotivation
(THREAD)
(2) First off, there are not a lot of rules about declaring national emergencies. And sadly, even in America, this executive power is rarely checked by Congress.

It's a tactic that has been used by both authoritarians and democracies around the world.
washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/…
(3) While Trump can declare a national emergency at his discretion, he can't invoke one indefinitely without Congressional approval. And there are some limits to how this authority can be used to deploy troops & use funding.

nytimes.com/2019/01/05/opi…
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
I was out for a walk this afternoon in my neighborhood, tromping through half ploughed icy sidewalks when something happened that happens way way too often.

A red pickup truck with a big engine pulled up alongside of me.

(THREAD)
(2) At first I didn’t think much of it, but I did look up and glare at the driver. As a woman walking alone, even in the middle of the day, I am hyper aware of my surroundings.

I feel uncomfortable wearing headphones to listen to music when in public for exactly this reason.
(3) The driver was a young to middle aged white male and his truck was loud. He coasted along beside me for nearly half a block before stopping.

I was annoyed but shrugged it off. Maybe he wasn’t sure where he was going and was trying to get a closer look at the house numbers.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Fight for House speaker explodes into national political campaign #SundayMorning #TeamPelosi #BlueWave wapo.st/2qTvNXk?tid=ss…
2/"Music legend Barbra Streisand retweeted a list of Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s biggest legislative achievements. Film director Rob Reiner called her “the smartest, toughest strategic thinker in our party.” And tennis champ Martina Navratilova wondered aloud why Pelosi’s job was at risk
3/"but her Senate counterpart’s position was in no such trouble. “Go figure,” Navratilova tweeted. “A man loses and keeps his place, a woman wins and gets booted?!?” While congressional leadership fights have historically revolved around insular matters such as committee
Read 38 tweets
Profile picture
Me until midterms are over.
me for the next two days.
Send me your memes, gifs and pics of you until #midterms are over.
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
#Earlyvoting update:
The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +0.96% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.05%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.01%. So the GOP is ~170k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018
#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
The final large batch of votes came in from Florida (a few more will trickle in today & tomorrow) and again favored the Democrats, as expected. As a result, the GOP-Dem margin decreased 0.09% since yesterday and 0.29% over the last 24 hours.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Kavanaugh's hearings are a national disaster — and the worst is yet to come nyp.st/2xLBiva via @nypost
This is a golden age for cynics. You will rarely go wrong in assuming an absence of decency and courage in the political class. However low the bar is set, it will not be low enough.

And now the national disaster will be aided by more time and a fresh supply of dynamite.
Friday’s agreement to give the FBI a week to supplement its background check by looking into existing misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh guarantees the nightmare will continue, especially for him and his battered family.
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
The New Testament reading from today's lectionary preaches itself -- and it offers wisdom for all to live these difficult days. James 3:13-4:2. #SundayMorning
The passage begins with a question:

"Who is wise and understanding among you?"
The author of the letter says that wisdom is known through character and action:

"Show by your good life that your works are done with gentleness born of wisdom."
Read 14 tweets
Profile picture
When @JZarif says, "#Iran never raced towards a bomb, nor will it race towards a bomb," rest assured it is the exact opposite.
We will realize how Tehran sought nuclear arms for decades. For a country sitting on an ocean of oil & gas, a "peaceful" nuclear program is meaningless.
A very telling cartoon about #NorthKorea & #Iran, as Pyongyang signals indications to set aside its nuclear weapons/ballistic missile program. This is leaving Tehran as now sole target of the international community's soon-to-come pressures.
For those who describe #Iran's FM @JZarif as a "moderate" or "reformist"

"We will exit the NPT. / We will launch advanced enrichment," he says in response to Trump's May 12th #IranDeal deadline.
asremrooz.ir/vdciu5ar3t1app…
Read 198 tweets

Trending hashtags

#ProudDems #SundayMorning #bluewave #Update #MAGA #BurnDownBabylon #AMJoy #Midterms #JCPOA #FutureProvesPast #GOP #BlueWave #10Q #Resistance #FlipItBlue2018 #Gorsuch #TakeItBack #MockingBirdMedia #MSM #PEACEFUL #Republican #BeTheBall #freespeech #COTD #Verify

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!