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Faisal Islam @faisalislam
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
the numbers below commissioned by ex Conservative funder pondering backing a new Brexit party appear on first notice to be concerning for the potential Tory rebels re attitude to Customs Union among Conservative voters... but... rather interestingly in the tables...
In these 11 Cons constituencies Comres polled 4110 voters

1942 (47%) votes Remain, 1784 (43%) Leave, 283 (7%) DNV
Or 52:48 Remain excl DNV

But “Referendum Voting Intention” now among the same voters in these seats
2195 (53%) Remain. 1692 (41%) Leave. 73 DK (2%)
Or 56:44 Remain
polling was funded by “Brexit Express” and meant to support the former Vote Leave and Conservative funder Jeremy Hosking suggestions of new pro Brexit party - appear to show in the seats held by Grieve, Allen, Soubry, Neill etc a trebling in margin of Remain support from 4 to 12%
Not sure if the original margin of 52:48 Remain was designed by @Andrew_ComRes to reflect the actual vote in those Tory constituencies at the referendum - in any event the shift of the same base , particularly the previous non voters to Remain is stark.
Full data tables here - comresglobal.com/wp-content/upl…
Brexit Express funded poll of Tory constituencies of customs union “rebels” also shows among 4110 voters asked what happens if EU asks for more concessions than Chequers:
31% say walk away with No Deal
30% say ask for an extension
25% say Forget Brexit
5% accept all EU demands
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Government defeat 303-296 on Cooper No Deal amendment on finance bill - inconvenient embarrassing defeat but big symbolic expression of will of Commons to prevent No Deal Brexit
This is the start of constitutional trench warfare where Parliament will try to assert its power over the executive to prevent No Deal - highly significant. As is the open expression that UK not ready for No Deal from likes of Letwin and Boles.
Twenty Tory rebels voting against Government: Including Sir Michael Fallon... Greening, Gyimah, Soames, Vaizey, Letwin, Boles,
Read 4 tweets
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Sir Oliver Letwin - “we will not allow a No Deal exit at the end of March” and this amendment shows the Government... “for 5 years I was in charge of the resilience of this country...preparation for no Deal wasn’t done... we can not impose on our country a risk of severe impacts”
Letwin almost emotional there - bit between tooth on stopping No Deal will vote for Cooper amendment, said as former Cabinet Office minister responsible for resilience - essentially UK not ready for No Deal. This said as a loyalist who fought hard to get A50 Bill through for PM
Nick Boles sounding pretty furious now about Tory MPs sniping... says manifesto clearly not Moses tablet

“did not say No Deal is better than any deal..” says No Deal prep woeful.

“I will vote on any legislation proposed by anyone that we will leave EU with a deal or not at all”
Read 4 tweets
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EU sources say there will be “no summit” and there are “no actual talks”, some discussions on reassurances. Another diplomatic source tells me even those will not come before the vote next week. /1
Still not entirely sure whether the Meaningful Vote debate that resumes tomorrow will be the continuation of the one curtailed last month or a new one. Former more likely. Would have to make special provision for previous speakers to speak again /2
Tory MPs who attended the Downing St drinks were expecting a bit of a rousing unity speech from PM - surprised there wasn’t one at all even “none of you will be back here” type cajoling. On the way out none I spoke to had changed mind.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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*New #Brexit poll*

"In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Right 38% (-2)
Wrong 49% (+2)
Don't know 13% (+1)

That is an 11 point lead for "wrong", the largest lead on record

YouGov Dec 5
"Do you think Britain will be economically better or worse off after we leave the European Union, or will it make no difference?"

Better off 24%
Worse off 42%
No difference 19%

Net lead 18 points for "worse off", second highest on record

YouGov Dec 5 #Brexit
Important to recognise underlying polarisation:

90% Remainers say "wrong", 80% Leavers say "right"
70% of Labour voters say "wrong", 68% of Tories say "right"
Upper/middle-class break 56-34 for "wrong", working class 42-40 for "right"
Read 3 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#brexit seems to be all about feeling over fact and this is especially true of the ReesMogg ERG faction of the Tory right.
I never bought the line that #brexit is about Democracy because most of the Tory right had zero enthusiasm for improving democracy in the UK few of them care about unelected house of lords the unfair FPTP electoral system or transparency on the contrary
Most of the Tory right are interested only in constitutional changes that suit them and if anything strive to be as little democratically accountable as possible.
Read 23 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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First Airbus, now BMW warn of factory closures if xBrexit takes UK out of the Customs Union and Single Market on which their supply chains depend...I wonder who Greg Hands and Philip Hammond have lined up next :)

The heat is clearly on ahead of the Chequers #Brexit meeting. /1
At this point, the roles are reversed from the Brexit campaign. Then the it's just 'project fear' narrative won the day.

Now, as Brexit approaches, the Brexiteers need to get beyond 'project fantasy' to sell a clean-break Brexit in face of real-world CEO warnings. /2
If BMW and Airbus are 'off' in the event of a clean-break #Brexit that brings the 'what then?' question into rather sharper focus.

And even if there was a case to be made (arguable) the Brexiteers are still making it based on hypotheticals...which is hard. /3
Read 5 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#NHS #Brexit #StopBrexit #Remain #GTTO #Labour #JC4PM #PeoplesVote #Zurich #brexit #Switzerland #efta #FBPE #Reform #Schengen #FinalSay #TheresaMay #ProjectFear #Reject #maxfac #singlemarket #BrexitShambles #Ireland #Revoke #EUCO

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