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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Various presumably coordinated articles this morning from ERG luminaries about what a dreadful Brexit deal we're about to get. Really not helpful to a negotiating team in the final stages of talks, like they want talks to fail.
There has to come a point when we have some sort of consensus about the future direction of our relationship with the EU. Hopefully soon. Let's see what the proposed Withdrawal Agreement is, then debate. It isn't as if there's anything new in these articles.
And is there anything more pathetic than the talk of the nasty EU making 'a trap' for the poor little UK? If you hold such a low view of your own country's ability don't leave? Trade talks take time, years, and you don't get a good result by throwing your toys out of the pram
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A win for the Conservative anti no-deal party. Now how do the Conservative no-deal party react knowing that in the event of rejecting the PM's deal the numbers may exist to withdraw Article 50?
The instant judgement that this defeat is bad for the PM is I think wrong.

Most or all of the rebels today will vote for her deal, she now has a clear threat to use against ERG rebels - this deal or no Brexit.
fwiw I would say the chances of no-deal Brexit have now crashed and the chances of the PM's deal or similar gone up to perhaps 50%. But the chances of no-Brexit are also strengthening, given the PM's ability to be her own worst enemy
Read 4 tweets
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets
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The Government may have informally asked the EU about an Article 50 Extension - we presume not for any serious reason (no-deal prep, election, referendum) but in the vague hope this somehow helps the PM's deal pass Parliament
Under three months from leaving the EU by law and we have a Government without a plan.
It is not clear that the UK Government has learned anything about negotiating with the EU over the past two and a half years
Read 4 tweets

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1) 2 observations about David Davis comments here
1stly the really pathetic point about the no deal #Brexit leaders is that even they don't believe in no deal, its still basically the worst bluff in history, believing 27 nations will fold on a cakeism deal before we do
2) if you believe in "no deal" & WTO is "liberating" then why talk about using it as leverage to get that "better" #brexit deal?
It's the same, tired, "they need us more..." line with added idiocy (hint: if you're going to bluff, don't tell everyone)

3) secondly, why does Davis still get airtime? He's been utterly wrong on every single aspect of #Brexit.

He thought we could strike individual trade deals with Germany. He also promised "exact same benefits". He attended 4 hours of negotiations. In all honesty, he's an idiot
Read 3 tweets
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1. I'm not interested in listening to any wailing about how bad May's #Brexit deal is. It's the only deal on the table. EEA window is closed and MPs have cocked it up and no deal isa non-starter. Yes, the deal is crap but that's what you get when you rule out all the alternatives
2. Leavers don't get to complained because most of you complained bitterly about an orderly planned Brexit and few had the foresight to think about how to do it so that strategically we are in a better place. Instead you went with boneheaded absolutism.
3. I have no sympathy for remainers either who bled a torrent of anti-EEA propaganda into the debate that then became the mainstay of the Ultras arguments. Y'all poisoned the well. If you wailed about EEA then you don't get to complain now.
Read 8 tweets
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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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.@SadiqKhan has told @MichelBarnier that EU should start preparations for extending art 50 talks just in case Westm votes down #Brexit deal &instructs GOV to hold a referendum: theguardian.com/politics/2018/…; here's is #thread why LONGER extension than 4-6 weeks isn't straightforward
1. Academic research by @ConUnit_UCL suggests that one needs around 6 M to hold referendum; the preparations to hold a vote include eg. pushing through legislation, assessing intelligibility of the Q on the ballot, preparing polling stations and securing the time for the campaign
2. The first possibility to instruct GOV to hold a vote would be when MPs vote on withdrawal agreement. Looking at the pace of the talks the deal (if it is reached at all) could be presented to Parliament the earliest in DEC; this means that the REF could be held around June/July
Read 11 tweets
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1. We now know from the government's own no deal technical notices that most, if not all, of the no deal warnings have a basis in fact. The fact that Theresa May is not attempting to spin them tells it's own story... She knows no deal is not an option.

#Brexit thread
2. She therefore has to make concessions to reality that she has long been avoiding, which of course the Ultras will absolutely hate. They then have two options. Like it and lump it or topple the government. If they do the former then they lose all their power.
3. Should they do the latter they are then confronted with the same basic dilemmas. Their WTO option is a busted flush and they can't have their fantasy Canada deal and certainly not without conceding to the backstop. They face the identical dilemma to Mrs May.
Read 14 tweets
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I think we can now say with certainty that no #Brexit deal May brings from Brussels commands a majority on her side of the house.

Any controls / backstop in Irish Sea - DUP opposes. There are 10 DUP MPs.

1/9
Any attempt to keep the UK in a Customs Union with the EU: hard core Brexiters in the ERG oppose. There are 40 odd of them.

2/9
So Theresa May’s calculation then is as follows: can she get enough MPs from other parties (essentially Labour) to make up the shortfall?

3/9
Read 9 tweets

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