A thread on the aftermath of the Brussels Summit, and the state of UK politics. Today, I have been trying to teach the latest Brexit developments to groups of students @BristolUniLaw. It has helped me to get some perspective. 1/
Teaching tends to help me a lot. In order to be able to explain things, you have to understand them. Where there are gaps are inconsistencies in reasoning, they tend to get exposed. 2/
To Brexit then. The key for TM for now, is to reach agreement with the EU on the Irish backstop (the other parts of the WA are more or less agreed); and to get that agreement through Parliament. Then Brexit will be done. 3/
The need for a solution to the Irish border problem (ie the joint commitment to no hard border in Ireland) has been apparent since at least December 2017. The EU has consistently been urging the UK to come up with workable solutions. 4/
The 'backstop', a plan to keep NI in the CU, and aligned with EU rules on the free movement of goods to the extent necessary for the Good Friday Agreement, is the EU's preferred solution (it is the one which causes the least disruption to the single market). 5/
The UK's response has been unimpressive. The first idea was 'Chequers'. That was directed to the future relationship not the withdrawal agreement, and was held to be unworkable. The idea which emerged today is an extension to the transition period (itself part of the WA). 6/
It does not, and does not purport to, solve the backstop issue. It means that the backstop will, if no FR which guarantees no hard border in Ireland is agreed, be needed from 2021 rather than 2020. 7/
But... it will still need to be included in the WA, which has to be agreed by the end of this year (possibly January). 8/
This is very much avoidance tactics. It amounts to a failure to address the burning issue. And the reason for that, is that the Irish border problem is a very difficult one (for TM) to solve. Given the promises she has repeatedly made, it is, in fact, impossible to solve it. 9/
She has pledged (100s of time) to take the UK out of the customs union and single market. She has pledged that no PM would countenance checks in the Irish Sea. And she has pledged that there will be no hard border in Ireland. 10/
It is impossible to fulfill all three pledges. If the UK leaves the CU/SM, the EU's external border has to fall either across Ireland, or in the Irish Sea. The checks/costs need not be 'dramatic', but they have to exist. 11/
TM, and many others, have simply been refusing to accept that choices must be made. One of the three pledges cannot be realised. You can choose which one cannot be realised, but you can only achieve two of them. 12/
A large part of the problem for the UK, is that it is not just the Govt which has been ducking the issue. The same is true of the Brexiters, and the Labour Party. 13/
I have no idea which of the three pledges TM would abandon. The DUP would presumably choose an Irish border (or perhaps UK CU/SM membership). The ERG would presumably choose between one of the Irish border options. 14/
The Labour would presumably opt for CU/SM membership. But they don't feel able to say this (yet). It is extraordinary that it is not possible to be more certain about what the various groups understand by the term 'Brexit'. 15/
So... because of the lack of an alternative, and the lack therefore of any effort to convince people of the merits of any alternative (and yes, they all involve costs), the country limps on with TM, and her impossible pledges. 16/
I've said it many times before, but time really is running out. If we limp on like this the destination is no deal. That should have concentrated minds a long time ago. Perhaps, just perhaps, it is not too late. 17/17
