Thread by @tparsi

A few thoughts on Trump's new Iran sanctions and massive escalation:

There is little doubt Trump’s sanctions will hurt the Iranian economy. But it is highly unlikely that they will succeed in forcing Iran to capitulate to Mike Pompeo’s 12 demands. >>

Obama tried the same with his sanctions -and failed. He only got Iran to show flexibility after he offered concessions, such as accepting enrichment on Iranian soil. Sanctions alone did not break the nuclear deadlock under Obama and it is even less likely to succeed under Trump>>

It is also clear that Trump has failed to push Iran’s oil exports down to zero. Iran will continue to export oil, making an Iranian capitulation even less likely. As usual, Trump’s policy has been heavy on bark, but not as heavy on bite.
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Contrary to Trump’s calculations, his escalation is likely to only make Iran’s regional policy more aggressive. As long as iran remains in the JCPOA, it'll refrain from countering by expanding its nuclear activities. Instead, it'll likely counter-escalate in Yemen, Syria, Iraq >>

And as Iran counter-escalates in the region, the risk of war will increase, particularly since Pompeo’s 12 demands has left the US with no face-saving exit.

Trump’s ill-advised policy on Iran is a carbon-copy of the Saudi Crown Prince’s failed policy on Qatar.
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We should not forget that this is a crisis of choice. The US did not need to do this. The nuclear program was fully working and Trump could have built on it by pursuing diplomacy to address America’s other concerns with Iran.

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Trump has chosen to undermine a fully functioning international agreement embodied in a UN Security Council Res and even sanction countries that abide by it. He is signaling that US extraterritorial sanctions are above the Security Council. You can’t get more pariah than that >>

Whether Trump’s intent is war or not may be irrelevant. He is pursuing an escalation that he can quickly lose control over. When Obama pursued sanctions, he was careful to simultaneously create diplomatic exit ramps. Trump has no such exit ramps, making war all the more likely.