Thread by @jedshug

I made a list of the 55 House districts to watch, w/ the 32 key seats for Dems to win a net +23 to win the House. It’s also a viewing guide, organized roughly on poll closing times. (Based on @CookPolitical categories, @FiveThirtyEight, and the Hillary 25) shugerblog.com/2018/11/06/201…

2/ I'll post analysis of Senate and Governorships. Also watch the Attorneys General and State Supreme Court.
Texas, vote for my friend Justin @NelsonForTexas against an *indicted* and corrupt incumbent!
Justin is the real deal - super smart, devoted, hard working, progressive.

3/ Michigan, vote for @sbagen Sam Bagenstos for Supreme Court!
I can't imagine a better state supreme court justice. Brilliant scholar, rule-of-law defender, progressive perspective.
Michigan's Supreme Court has made huge decisions over the past decade. It needs Sam's wisdom.

4/ Here's how the Democrats can win the Senate today. I might be crazy, but there's an increasing chance of this happening (better than the pundits suggest) after some good Senate polls from more reliable pollsters came out yesterday. shugerblog.com/2018/11/06/201…

5/ Predictions. At risk of big embarrassment.
House 235-200 Dem.
Senate 51-49... Dem. Without Beto.
Gillum wins FL.
Abrams goes to run-off Dec. 4.

6/ My track record is mixed. But I did warn everyone I knew through all of fall 2016 that Trump could win, so I dragged my family to New Hampshire 4 times to canvas. I also called Howard Dean’s Iowa collapse and Obama’s win. I’ve been wrong on most other things.

These early races are looking very good: #VA10, @JenniferWexton far ahead of @BarbaraComstock with 50% in. Good sign.
@AndrewGillum also looking solid, outpacing Clinton by a lot.
@AmyMcGrathKY jumps ahead in red #KY06. If she wins that race- good night ahead...

I expected @JenniferWexton to win, but not this fast and by this much! One of the 25 GOP districts that Hillary had won in2016.

These Florida numbers for @SenBillNelson aren’t great now. It’s going to be tight, but Dem votes have always come in late.

@JamesCarville on @MSNBC: “The sign are out there: This is not going to be a wave election. It can still be good for Democrats. Broward (FL) is still out, that could help @SenBillNelson. But this isn’t a wave election.”

Bad news: Indiana Senate goes GOP, Brain over Donnelly. No plausible path to Senate Majority now.

Good news: Stay focused on the House. There are some disappointing Senate and Gov. races, but the House is on track. @SpanbergerVA07 just pulled ahead of @DaveBratVA7th with 97% in.