X : Oracle is more than databases.
Me : #facepalm. Learn to read between the lines. Amazon is going after the whole ERP / SCM space circa 2020. This is just signalling to the market.
Me : #facepalm. Learn to read between the lines. Amazon is going after the whole ERP / SCM space circa 2020. This is just signalling to the market.
X : I don't see why, this is just databases.
Me : #facepalm. Try launching cloud services in a space when your competitors can say "you don't even use your service, you rely on our products" ... Amazon thinks way ahead, it's in for the long haul, this was always coming.
Me : #facepalm. Try launching cloud services in a space when your competitors can say "you don't even use your service, you rely on our products" ... Amazon thinks way ahead, it's in for the long haul, this was always coming.
X : Do you think we will see a decline of Oracle?
Me : No, not yet. They'll play a game of sweat and acquire i.e. sweat existing assets (e.g. synergies!), acquire to replace declining revenue, rinse and repeat. Lots of divs and share buybacks on offer to keep the price high.
Me : No, not yet. They'll play a game of sweat and acquire i.e. sweat existing assets (e.g. synergies!), acquire to replace declining revenue, rinse and repeat. Lots of divs and share buybacks on offer to keep the price high.
... they'll get a good few 15-20 years out of that. Playing for time give the chance of some lucky break, some new thing discovered assuming they don't take a ride on the spiral of death (i.e. getting rid of the talent that might save them) which most do.
By the time the crunch happens, most execs would have cashed out on tales of how they grew the company / turnaround (i.e. acquisition / revenue replacement) and so it'll be the next lot who will discover the car has raced over the cliff edge and now has nowhere to go but down.
In the meantime, Oracle has the perfect person in charge - Hurd. He played the same role at HP. Great for Wall Street, disaster for the future of the company but ... well, trebles all round. Expect more aggressive cost cutting (i.e. synergies ftw) and ever bigger acquisitions.
X : Oracle was founded in 1977. People will probably be saying the same thing about AWS in forty years time.
Me : It depends. AWS has some magic sauce in the way it's organised. However, 40 years is enough time for strategy consultancy firms to take over and wreck the place.
Me : It depends. AWS has some magic sauce in the way it's organised. However, 40 years is enough time for strategy consultancy firms to take over and wreck the place.
... whether that will happen depends upon on how much Amazon invests in nurturing & reinforcing internal talent with the doctrine (principles) that make the organisation work. First warning signs will be when someone removes essential elements e.g. the press release process.
... it's the same with most places. Sometimes it happens quickly, sometimes the structure is set up so the magic is retained. E.g. UK Gov, the warning signs quickly appeared as people moved to undermine spend control and weaken the process of challenge.
