This '10 myths about no-deal Brexit' is doing the rounds among the hardcore Brexiteers today (incidentally would welcome better terminology, there are plenty of leave supporters who didn't circulate. Usual nonsense... thread 1/ blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/ten-my…
Myth 1 - we could shrink 8% in a year. We could, or not, but the Bank of England study lays it out clearly that this is a scenario they used to test the banking system. Would you rather they weren't prepared 2/ 
While we're at it, I still believe the UK has a lot to thank Mark Carney for in his calm handling of the immediate post-referendum situation - I've spoken to many financial system experts who saw how their preparation prevented any crisis events happening 3/
Anyway, back to the myths, and here we go with Project Fear again. Except that this is what any normal trade model will show. Doesn't mean it will happen like that, and some would and do argue it is a price worth paying for leaving EU... 4/
Myth 3 and we're back to the German car makers... more importantly, 'decimate trade' - don't recall anyone in fact saying that, so this is the imaginary myth and equally imaginary solution... 5/
Myth 4, not an expert on the finances, but this one doesn't seem so wrong, as I think £39 billion includes some 2019-2020 payments, and since the article accepts we're paying we can move on... 6/
Myth 5, Irish border. It isn't strictly WTO rules, it is EU rules, and also even if checks can be carried out away from the border, where? how? Debunked well by @CoppetainPU earlier today... 7/
Myth 6, the old tariff one... except many imports are already tariff free under trade agreements, and in the case of wine costs are mostly domestic duties. @Jim_Cornelius repeatedly debunks this one... 8/
Myth 7. The latest economic numbers were better than the previous ones. So this stands I think 9/
Myth 8, Foreign Direct Investment. I think I'll trust the Trade Policy Observatory on this one, who find a decline blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2018/11/… 10/
Myth 9, turns out the M25 is more of a risk to just in time manufacturing than no-deal Brexit. Not terribly convincing with no particular evidence, but apparently the French will fear Rotterdam... evidence? 11/
Myth 10: Shortages. Who knows to be quite honest. But Dominic Raab discovered quite a lot of our imports come via Dover. Are we sure nothing bad can happen? 12/
But what's really interesting about this to me - there's no realistic vision to no-deal, but always just a continuation of stuff debunked months ago and general defensiveness. And then we'll have a great deal with the EU after leaving? Why? 13/ ends
