Thread by @sistertoldjah

I promised to post on the numbers I crunched earlier today along with some general observations about #NC09 in a tweet storm. Starting it now, will stop for dinner for a bit, then come back to it. Since this story has gone national, ppl want to know more so here goes. #ncpol 1/

First - some overall info: 282,717 ppl cast ballots in the #NC09 race between Harris (R) and McCready (D). As it stands now, the numbers are: 139,246 for Harris and 138,341 for McCready (a difference of 905 votes), and 5,130 for the Libertarian candidate Jeff Scott. #ncpol 2/

.@BowTiePolitics (Dr. Bitzer) did an in-depth analysis of the ABM percentages in #NC09, & my next series of posts relies on his percentages,tho most of the raw numbers from those I calculated myself, so if I get anything wrong, don't blame him :) oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2018/12/NCs-9t… 3/ #ncpol

Local and national media have mostly reported percentages ("40% of ABM were not returned", for example) & on the surface that made me think we had large (tens of thousands) of numbers of ABMs not returned/missing. Fortunately that was not the case. #ncpol #NC09 4/

BTW, absentee ballots (ABM) are at the heart of the #NC09 controversy, which is why the focus is on them. There are several full & partial counties included in #NC09. The 2 given the most scrutiny are Bladen (partial county) and Robeson (full) bit.ly/2Qbi4KF #ncpol 5/

Per a tweet from Dr. Bitzer earlier to me, in raw numbers, the #NC09 part of Bladen County had a total of 1,237 absentee ballot requests. Robeson County (all of which is part of NC09) had 1,904 absentee ballot requests. That's a total of 3141 ABM requests for the two. #ncpol 6/

A racial component has been inserted into the debate about what happened ("70% were not returned in XYZ" - media reports). Here's where I crunched raw numbers, based on Bitzer's percentages in this post (bit.ly/2Qbi4KF). #ncpol #NC09 7/

In the #NC09 part of Bladen, 1,237 ABMs were requested. Per Bitzer's numbers, 29.5% of those requests were from African Americans. In raw #s (my calcs), that's 365 ABM requests from AA voters. Bitzers graph says 39% weren't returned. That's 142 in raw numbers. #ncpol 8/

Also in the #NC09 part of Bladen, per Bitzer's graph, 1% of Native Americans requested ABMs, which by my calculations is 12 requests in raw numbers. Of those, 58% were not returned. Sounds like a huge number, but in reality, it's *7* in raw numbers. Now, on to Robeson. #ncpol 9/

Robeson (full #NC09 county) had 1,904 requested absentee ballots. 36% of those requests were from African American voters (per Bitzer). That's 685 requests in raw numbers (per my calcs). Of those requests, 486 (71%) were not returned. #ncpol 10/

Native Americans requested 29% of the ABMs in Robeson, which by my calcs is 552 requests in raw numbers. Of those, 67% - or 369 in raw numbers - were not returned. #ncpol #NC09 11/

Btwn the two counties there were an additional 100 ballots or so that were not returned that were labeled "multi-racial/other races" on Bitzer's #NC09 graph (link here: bit.ly/2Qbi4KF). #ncpol 12/

As for white voters, in Robeson (full #NC09 county), 28% requested ABMs, which is 533 in raw numbers. Of those, 44% were not returned. That's 234 raw. For Bladen, 68.2% of white voters, or 843, requested ABMs. Of those, 337 were not returned. #ncpol 13/

ALL these numbers I've posted add up to this: Of the 3,141 absentee ballots requested in the #NC09 Bladen and Robeson counties, 1,675 were not returned. Party affiliations: 966 Dems, 498 Unaffiliated, and 210 GOP. #ncpol 14/

So, out of the 282,717 ballots cast in the #NC09 race, there were an additional 1675 not returned ABMs. If all the unreturned ones were added into the results, that would add just a little over a half a percentage point (roughly .60) to the totals. #ncpol 15/

These aren't "massive" numbers of unreturned ABMs (tho they've been portrayed that way in the media) but that said, in a race where 905 votes separates the 2 main candidates, the saying of "every vote counts (and is important)" comes to mind. More importantly... #ncpol #NC09 16/

... bc there are seemingly credible reports out there on alleged "ballot harvesting" where 3rd parties are picking up ballots (& what was done with them???), it calls into question the integrity of the election process, & ppl will feel they were disenfranchised. #ncpol #NC09 17/

Republicans who are skeptical about what is being reported can do what I did and figure out the raw numbers (based on Bitzer's percentages bit.ly/2Qbi4KF) and see this isn't a made up issue. At this point, a number of things still aren't known. But... #ncpol #NC09 18/

Even if Dowless returned all ballots to the BOE, even if none were altered by Dowless, even if the Harris campaign and county GOPs didn't know what was allegedly going on, the fact is there is at least ONE witness on camera per @JoeBrunoWSOC9 who said Dowless ... #ncpol #NC09 19/

...paid her a weekly rate of between $75 & $100 to pick up absentee ballots and bring to him. This is illegal in NC. Third party groups cannot pick up ABMs for voters here. It's a FELONY if true. And the woman said she didn't know if the ballots made it to BOE! #ncpol #NC09 20/

"Ballot harvesting" is not allowed in NC because of the potential for ELECTION fraud. One of the craziest things about all of this is that, while not legal here, 3rd parties picking up ballots & taking them to the BOE *IS* legal in California. That's just NUTS. #ncpol #NC09 21/

Do I have confidence that the board of elections is going to sort this out properly? Not really. But if you were a voter in #NC09 and reading all this would you have confidence that the general election results were on the up and up? #NCPOL 22/

I'm not sure 3 wks (the board meets on 12/21) will be enough time to sort thru all of this. It wouldn't surprise me if they called for another election, which would mean the #NC09 seat would be vacant for an (unknown) period of time. But this is not a "made up" issue.. #ncpol 23/

... & it's important we find out what, if anything, happened. Just because Dems dismissed Republican Qs about possible voter fraud in 2016 BEFORE the first Q was even asked about it dsn't mean we need to be the same way when the shoe is on the other foot. #ncpol #NC09 23/23/end

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