Thread by @AllianceBE

Feeling dejected about #Brexit? Well don't!

The UK still holds all the cards. They just need to be played correctly.

A short #Thread from Leave colleagues from the far south to the distant north of our wonderful island. With thanks to @ScotsForLeaveEU

[THREAD]

1/ The EU & Irish govt have said that there will be no hard border with NI in the event of “no deal” at UK exit. But this means that the EU has also accepted that the EU is bound to do a ‘zero-for-zero’ deal with no tariff barriers with the UK.

2/ The border is frictionless & invisible, no checkpoints or other facilities at the border with the NI (& thus the UK). Tariffs are paid electronically, just as VAT & Excise are paid now; animal checks are done away from the physical border at approved facilities; & sanitary...

3/ ...phytosanitary checks are done at point of sale or production. The result is that this will almost certainly mean no tariffs on low-level goods which come into NI daily, otherwise this might give rise to Good Friday Agreement risk.

4/ If the EU does not have a FTA with the UK, it will have to grant the same terms to other nations under WTO MFN rules, eg, frictionless borders. So the EU will be keen to conclude a FTA with the UK ASAP. Thus the UK’s default position in FTA negotiation is strong.

5/ The EU will be the one seeking good terms from us. The UK is a net importer on most things. German car interests are likely to mean low car tariffs, for example. We import twice as much as we export (this is also a bargaining chip with the US).

6/ For the UK the question of tariffs arises mainly with agriculture, aquaculture & seafood. Yet we can decide what tariffs to impose or not to impose tariffs, at all (for example on agriculture), as suits us.

7/ The EU may impose tariffs on our agricultural/aquaculture/seafood exports, but (a) we can sell to new markets...and (b) we can provide financial support to these exporters to offset any losses/costs.

8/ The EU must grant equivalence for financial infrastructure (as has already happened in some areas) and, if the UK holds firm, for other areas such as investment banking. Mutual recognition of qualifications is in the interests of the EU and the UK.

9/ Separately, the UK should indicate up front that it will, of course, honour the financial obligations it actually owes. The UK might make a small goodwill payment despite there being no basis in international law for this. This will not be £39 billion...

10/ The proposed withdrawal agreement makes the UK a vassal, imposes onerous pre-conditions to a trade agreement & removes our leverage. It stops us competing fairly, as the EU will have embedded control of our fiscal policy through the state-aid rules & flanking agreements.

11/ It is essential for the UK to vote down the proposed withdrawal agreement. It is equally essential that the UK can exit the EU without compromising its ability to negotiate a trade deal with the EU fairly and with all our leverage.

#GoWTO #Brexit #MondayMotivation

*non-tariff!

Excuse fat fingers!