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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A date of December 2021 to end the backstop is undeliverable. If the Murrison amendment passes next week, and the Cooper amendment fails, then no-deal will be by far the most likely outcome of Brexit.
Of course if both Murrison and Cooper amendments pass then who knows.

More on why Murrison amendment is essentially a vote for no-deal here
It is no exaggeration to say that Tuesday's votes will be the most important in recent UK political history - quite simply MPs will be voting on which version of facts they believe - a no-deal will be fine set, or a no-deal will be a disaster set.
Campaign for a second referendum an irrelevant sideshow for the next week. Nothing like the numbers in Parliament.
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
No she isn't. She's close to a majority for an imaginary deal the EU told her they didn't accept 18 months ago. That isn't leadership but abdication.
This is Government wishful thinking of the sort we last saw between the Chequers White Paper and the Salzburg Summit. Does the Government need reminding that it didn't go too well? thesun.co.uk/news/8283772/b…
Reminder. I simulated the negotiation after Parliament passed an amendment on the backstop. It didn't go too well for the UK...
Read 16 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Weekly Brexit tracker time, and as I warned earlier, supporters of a referendum may want to look away now...
No votes this week, and it looks better for the PM's deal, as the alternatives lose ground. No-deal as the default stays as a strong possibility, but the campaign for a referendum simply doesn't seem to have the support. So if it isn't going to be no-deal...
Re-posting my own article from yesterday, the differences between the PM's deal and Labour's policy are minor - only tribal politics and appalling leadership stops a deal being confirmed. The chances of EEA thus also recede... politics.co.uk/comment-analys…
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
A Free Trade Agreement is for life not just for Christmas.
Lots of people are having fun inventing trade deals, tariff policy, future regulations, but the reason these things take years is you need to make sure what you decide actually suits your economy
There might also be a few bridges to build with all those businesses that some MPs have been insulting for quite a while now
Read 3 tweets

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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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katya adler
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