Thread by @iwitteronandon

To answer questions about trade with data (rather than pulling figures out of…let’s say thin air), I’ve put together a thread on the facts (trade for 2017; goods only*):

How much UK trade is:
1. “On WTO RULES”?
2. On WTO rules ALONE?
3. On WTO TARIFFS?

4. What’re the details?

1. How much UK trade is “on WTO RULES"?
Short answer: All of it

UK is WTO member
All trade with other members is bound by WTO rules
They are basic rules of trade, but, through EU, we have trade deals/arrangements with ALL WTO members & some non-members that go beyond basic level

2. How much is on WTO rules ALONE?
Short answer: Only our exports to Mongolia; Afghanistan; Nepal & Yemen (see map in question 1):
- All other UK exports are via EU trade deals
- All UK imports are via EU trade deals and preferences

3. How much is on WTO TARIFFS?
a) IMPORTS
9.9% of UK imports (€54bn of €617.9bn) are subject to an EU WTO MFN rate that is greater than zero
87.2% are completely tariff-free
Most of the rest are on reduced tariffs for developing nations

b) EXPORTS
(i) Unfortunately, same dataset detail not available for exports
However, from question 2, only €0.11bn of €382.3bn (0.03%) of exports go to countries where exports on WTO alone
With the data we have, all we can say for sure is that it’s likely to be between 0-30%

(ii) We do know, however, that average WTO tariffs are generally quite low in major markets. For example, two of our largest export markets outside the EU where WTO MFN applies to much of our exports (US & China) are 2.4% and 5.2% respectively

*Side note on goods vs services

(a) I am looking at goods trade only because:
- despite being 80% of our economy & jobs, practically nobody is talking about services;
- UK goods trade is twice as large as services;
- there are no tariffs on services

(b) But should note:
- WTO has basic services agmt
- EU ⬆ focus on services in trade agmts
- Services highly regulated in most countries
Non-tariff barriers:
-v. high
-largely eliminated/being eliminated within EU Single Market
-being reduced by EU FTAs, particularly latest gen

4. What details are available?
a) Exports by product type & trade arrangement
b) Imports as (a)
c) Imports by product type & tariff applied
d) Food imports in greater detail
e) Arrangements for developing nations

a) Exports by product type & trade arrangement

b) Imports by product type & trade arrangement

c) Imports by product type and tariff applied

d) Food; live animal; and animal & vegetable product imports by detailed product type by tariff applied (1/2)

d) Food; live animal; and animal & vegetable product imports by detailed product type by tariff applied (2/2)

e) Arrangements for developing nations:

https://twitter.com/iwitteronandon/status/1087664759267381248?s=20

With thanks to @Jim_Cornelius, @IWBAShitShow @DmitryOpines @mac_puck and @rjbarfield1 for their help in understanding the data as I put it together

I separated out trading arrangements for exports versus imports and mapped each.

How much trade is on WTO rules alone? only the purple bits in the "Exports" map (Afghanistan, Yemen, Mongolia & Nepal) and none of our imports

@Jim_Cornelius I believe you had a similar map?