Thread by @jonworth

So I tried to make a diagram about the amendments this week... but I can't make it work. Here is the effort.

Why it didn't work to plot it all will be explained in the thread.

What actually happens after voting on the Amendments on Tuesday is pretty much unknown.

We *assume* Theresa May will try to go back to Brussels, to renegotiate something.

But *what*? And when? And how?

This depends on whether the Murrison or Brady amendments pass - that are essentially trying to kill the backstop. This is CENTRAL.

If Murrison or Brady Amds pass, this sets up a major conflict with 🇪🇺. May will go to Brussels armed with something that 🇪🇺 cannot accept.

Push back from 🇪🇺 will be that 🇬🇧 will have to change something else - a permanent Customs Union for example, as a different guarantee of no hard border in Ireland.

Brexiters will 🤯 at that. So No Deal looms into view.

If Murrison's or Brady's Amendments do not pass, then May has no backing to really change anything with 🇪🇺.

And then if Cooper's Amendment *does* pass, then 🇬🇧 is on course to request to extend Article 50.

And if no amendments pass, then I have no idea where the hell we are.

For background - this from @michaelsavage theguardian.com/politics/2019/… and this from @instituteforgov instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…

These votes are going to be vital this week - it's starting to get tense in matters Brexit!

/ends