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Increasingly thinking the Brady amendment and the announcement of the next vote on Feb 13 has taken the importance out of today's vote. No incentive on EU to do anything but hold firm, and wait for next steps.
Brady is too vague to mean anything, the Malthouse whatever too ERG dominated to be acceptable to the EU or probably conservative moderates, so we're going to be back in two weeks time for more.
Two weeks during which little progress will be made on any Brexit legislation, and business will have only 6 weeks to be ready for no-deal. Requesting extension nearly inevitable, so it will be in keeping with the Brexit farce for MPs to vote against it.
Yep, back in two weeks for another deal v no-deal vote. But I think no-deal is probably now the most likely outcome, just, and the ERG will be celebrating another victory over conservative moderates tonight. But another round in two weeks...
Also time for referendum campaigners to change direction. On the evidence of tonight there is virtually no prospect of them succeeding.
This will all take some time to digest, but one irony is that holding the Conservative Party together may become harder rather than easier - because at some point there has to be a final vote, and antagonism is not going away.
There is - just - a Parliamentary majority against no-deal. But with 310 supporting the principle of no-deal including the PM. We're pretty much in 50:50 deal / no deal territory now, balance just for a deal. Back for more in 2 weeks...
