Now, let's talk about how we're already fucking up 2020.
No one thought it was a good idea when the Republicans did this in 2016, because obviously.
The financial cost of this election is likely going to surpass that of 2016, and that broke the bank, more than doubling the previous record from 2012.
While our coalition is massive we can't be asked to fund huge campaigns every two years.
But that is not a good enough reason in our current political atmosphere to run.
Then the real games begin.
I love both of the Castro brothers, and I think that Julian would make an ideal VP candidate, but he will not be the 2020 Dem nominee.
But reality does not seem to factor into these decisions. Castro will fund his campaign mostly by leaning on the wallets of the Texans he knows so well. He will call in favors and many people will give lots of money to fund a no shot campaign.
Democrats, particularly women, often have a hard time getting airtime or printshsre. In truth it's because we are the boring geeks that save the day when needed and who provide the voice of sanity and reason. We're generally more honest & studied.
None of these things are particular strengths in the age of Trump inspired political media. Here truth and boring are ignored.
In this landscape we need the Kamala's, Coreys, & Elizabeths to be able to use the media time they manage to get their message out.
The 2016 Republican debates we're a fucking joke. 30-90 second answer windows, attack alliances between any number of candidates who focused on harming, or crippling particular candidates.
Often the way to do that is by actually being a complete contrast to everyone around you, by resetting expectations.
3. A question of consequences.
I do not believe that Donald Trump would have had the opportunity to conspire with Russia to steal the US Presidency had the overcrowded GOP field not provided him the necessary cover at the start.
Instead, these truths were revealed slowly, methodically.
It was exactly what he needed.
Throughout all of this the media largely allowed Trump to steer his own narrative.
Recently, I tweeted the following:
Their claim: Bernie never attacked Beto. Find it! Show me!
And this part is key.
Those still falling for the Sanders as saviour schtick will always assume "old Bernie" can't help what his supporters do or say.
Which is utter nonsense.
The image of the Christlike Sanders was always ridiculous, but their adherance to it could yet bear fruit.
Then I considered Trump and his path to the 2016 Republican nomination and can profess to being somewhat nervous.
Harris, Booker, Warren, O'Rourke, Gillibrand.
And they are all running for the Democratic nomination against Bernie Sanders.
Unclear how this could work yet?
Let me show you.
He will likely do well in these states again in 2020.
If there is one thing I've learned over the past 10 years it's not to underestimate the racism or misogyny.
Do, and die.
I've watched women reduced to tears and old women being called racists for supporting Clinton in 2008.
Caucuses are ugly.
Discounting Sanders might make us feel better hypothetically, but it could be our undoing in practice.
Sanders is weaker than he was in 2016 but HE IS NOT BROKEN.
It is within the realm of possibility that Sanders wins both Iowa & NH.
BIDEN could throw a spanner in the works for Sanders should he chooses to run.
Otherwise Sanders supporters, undoubtedly with aid from Russian bots, are going to use social media to spread dissension.
With Sanders pushing far left on economic issues and rightward on identity politics, and Warren seemingly keen to meet or surpass him on the former, Harris, Booker, & Gillibrand will need to differentiate themselves.
Trump understood the nature of chaos better than any of his opponents. And he exploited it to his advantage.
I never imagined a scenario by which Bernie Sanders became Democratic nominee.
But this is frightfully plausible.
We must discourage those with no hope at the nomination by denying them funding & attention.
We must start the national campaign unified and ready.
Tonight part two "How we are doing 2020 wrong: The Candidates."
Then part three "How we are doing 2020 wrong: The Media."
I will conclude with part four "How we are doing 2020 wrong: Us, the voters.