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So I didn't see the big fall in the November trade deficit coming.
Exports were weak, so it was all imports -- about half oil and half consumer goods
bea.gov/news/2019/us-i…
Exports were weak, so it was all imports -- about half oil and half consumer goods
bea.gov/news/2019/us-i…
The net deficit in petrol was under $1b in November, v say an average of $5b in Q3.
and non-petrol imports fell back from $197-198b in Sept/ October to $193-194b
and non-petrol imports fell back from $197-198b in Sept/ October to $193-194b
Imports from China were up 8% y/y in October, but then fell 3% y/y in November -- which fits a front running the tariffs and the threat of tariffs story.
But there may also be more too it
But there may also be more too it
There was a $2b fall in imports of cell phones -- and I don't think cell phones were on the $200b list. would need to be front running the threat of tariffs on everything I think. (exhibit 9)
other places were consumer goods imports dropped off --
antiques and art (monthly variation i expect, but maybe that was China related too)?
pharma (not china I assume)
and apparel ($500m between two categories) which also wasn't to my knowledge on the $200b list
antiques and art (monthly variation i expect, but maybe that was China related too)?
pharma (not china I assume)
and apparel ($500m between two categories) which also wasn't to my knowledge on the $200b list
real ag exports weren't as bad a I expected/ feared -- were in line with their 2017 levels ($13b). guess exports of other gains have offset some of the fall in soy, and some soy got shipped to other markets
real exports of capital goods, autos and consumer goods were up less than 1% y/y. That's the line I am watching, expect imports will recover after a bit of a correction so long as US economy continues to grow. Exports likely to stay in doldrums
I need to pull the detailed data (later today) but basic story here seems clear --
one: oil. almost in balance on a monthly basis.
two: fall off in consumer goods imports from China, particularly cell phones (e.g. one of the categories that hasn't yet been subject to tariffs)
one: oil. almost in balance on a monthly basis.
two: fall off in consumer goods imports from China, particularly cell phones (e.g. one of the categories that hasn't yet been subject to tariffs)
think this may be tied to the buildup of inventories that came with strong September/ October imports (which fits a front running story generally even if the front running was against the risk of tariffs on everything from China). @teasri watches incentories more closely than I
appreciate insights from others. This one came as a bit of a surprise to me. expected a bigger dip in exports (on ag side) and more stability in non-oil imports, largely b/c Chinese exports to the US didn't fall off til November (in the Chinese data)
