Thread by @warnjason

(1/X): How does the US' Africa Command (AFRICOM) view the current threat landscape on the African continent?

AFRICOM commander GEN Waldhauser revealed AFRICOM posture today in front of Senate.

Below, a digest thread I've put together for those that don’t have time to read it:

https://twitter.com/alexisarieff/status/1093543051711180800

(2/X): Overall, AFRICOM posture framed by priorities of National Defense Strategy, w/resultant concern about:

A) Great Power competition (especially vis-a-vis China and Russia)

B) Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) (and their destabilizing impacts on African partner states)

(3/X): As per National Defense Strategy, US is shifting away from “terrorism” and towards “Great Power competition." In Africa (as elsewhere globally) this means focus on countering Chinese and Russian presence.

(4/X): AFRICOM concerns w/China’s role in Africa:

-Chinese threats to US access to markets + ports
-China’s use of usurious “debt-trap” diplomacy
-Attractive Chinese loans to strategic allies like Djibouti, Senegal, Angola
-Lack of African workers for Chinese-funded projects

(5/X): AFRICOM posture pays particular attention to China’s presence in Djibouti, where:

-China’s creation of a new naval base near US’ Camp Lemonnier challenges US presence and complicates logistics
-China holds 80% of Djiboutian govt's debt, giving it unparalleled leverage

(6/X): US concern with Russian activities in Africa is newer development, and discussed in terms that - in my read - make it stand out as compared to others.

(7/X): “Russia is a growing challenge [in Africa]...By employing oligarch-funded, quasi-mercenary military advisors, esp in countries where leaders seek unchallenged autocratic rule, Russian interests gain access to natural resources on favorable terms.”

(8/X): " “This [Russian influence] is occurring in CAR, where elected leaders mortgage mineral rights - for a fraction of their worth - to secure Russian weapons...In Libya, [Russia] invoke[s] Qaddafi-era relationships and debts to obtain economic and military contracts.”

(9/X): Interestingly, the AFRICOM posture makes distinction between China’s *generally, though not exclusively* more economically-focused approach to Africa, as compared to Russia’s more militaristic approach.

(10/X): As concerns threats by VEOs, 3 main geographic areas of interest for AFRICOM are, unsurprisingly:

-Somalia
-Libya
-Sahel and Lake Chad

(11/X): Of note, in each of these 3 areas of priority, AFRICOM articulates a concern about BOTH al-Qaeda & Islamic State groups:

-Somalia (Al-Shabaab + IS-Somalia)
-Libya (AQIM +IS factions in Libya)
-Sahel/Lake Chad (JNIM + IS-West Africa, IS-Greater Sahara)

(12/X): Indeed, while Islamic State’s territorial decline has indeed occurred in Iraq and Syria, AFRICOM's assessment shows that IS affiliates are alive and dangerous in Africa. Al-Qaeda never left.

****INTERLUDE*****

Infant breakdown, brb.

(13/X): Other geographic and topical areas of AFRICOM worry include:
-Nigeria’s herder-farmer conflicts in Middle Belt
-Piracy in Gulf of Guinea
-Ebola in DRC and central Africa
-Environmental degradation
-Youth bulge and unemployment
-Human trafficking and slavery

(14/X): In sum, nothing earth-shattering in this AFRICOM posture. Most themes - with the exception of focus on Russia - are tried and true.

(15/X): While AFRICOM divides threats bt Great Power (China/Russia) & non-state VEOs (AQ/IS), the latter, in my mind, are far more germane. Repeated inclusion of Russia (though a problematic actor) done more to align w/National Defense Strategy than bc of degree of threat posed.

*****FIN*****

[as determined by still-upset infant]