Thread by @sbmintelligence

1/ A carelessly incurred fine, effectively ignoring a surging ISWAP, the CCB’s sudden impotence, and a judicial bailout for an under fire ruling party, Nigeria has become the land where the unnecessary is king.

2/ The drama between @MobilePunch and @CCBNigeria represents the latest indication of the current administration’s selective commitment to the rule of law.

3/ The irony of @CCBNigeria who responded to a letter against CJN #Onnoghen - an official who is no favourite of @MBuhari - in a matter of hours while ignoring a legal request for information that could potentially tar @AsoRock’s leading lights is inescapable.

4/ While it is worth noting that @GEJonathan administration had little regard for FOI requests, the @MBuhari government’s opacity and its strident efforts to frustrate any effort that would shed a light on the inner workings of governance has been unprecedented.

5/ With #NigeriaDecides2019 scheduled to happen 8 days from today, this conflicting behaviour will not be lost on many voters.

6/ According to court papers, the judgement debt arose from #Nigeria’s failure to perform its obligations under a gas supply and processing agreement it signed with P&ID in January 2010 to generate electricity for #Nigeria using natural gas, which is being flared.

7/ However, in April 2015, P&ID accepted #Nigeria’s repudiation of the agreement and subsequent offer to settle the dispute for $850 million. @GEJonathan chose not to make the payment so close to handing over to @MBuhari in May 2015.

8/ @MBuhari rejected the $850 million settlement, so the issue snowballed. Govt is a continuum. Buhari should have honoured the agreement especially considering that @GEJonathan inherited this contract and negotiated a settlement on a liability created before his govt.

9/ That the @MBuhari administration refused to honour it, and then did not diligently pursue a new deal is a petty move that has now caused a liability far exceeding any #Nigeria has ever incurred. It is an unfortunate situation.

10/ The earlier nullification of the #Rivers APC primaries, including the governorship primary, followed a legal battle between a faction loyal to @SenMagnusAbe, and a faction loyal to @ChibuikeAmaechi.

11/ @OfficialAPC's national leadership is backing @ChibuikeAmaechi’s faction which produced the party’s governorship candidate in the state, @TonyeCole1.

12/ There are 2 points to note - 1st is that this ruling has eliminated the greatest threat to peace and security in #Rivers, as no serious observer expected @OfficialAPC to comply with the lower court’s decision come Election Day.

13/ This does not however, preclude the possibility of violent confrontations in parts of #Rivers. The 2nd point is that from @AsoRock’s perspective, the path to re-election has auto-corrected somewhat.

14/ The South-South states is crucial to @MBuhari's path to securing "of the votes cast at in each of at least of all the states in #Nigeria and #Abuja" as required by #CFRN1999, even if he almost certainly won’t win any of the states in the region.

15/ For these reasons, there were cheers from broom-wielding supporters in Port Harcourt, as well as in Abuja.

16/ @HQNigerianArmy routinely denies claims made by humanitarian organisations and independent reporters on the security and humanitarian situations in #NENigeria even when there is clear evidence to the contrary.

17/ This has made it difficult for outsiders to get a clear picture of conditions on the ground and prepare the appropriate assistance.

18/ The real picture is that #ISWAP, especially, continues to gain strength with each attack, and is slowly increasing the territory that it controls. In some of those places, it has become a de facto government.

19/ It appears that @HQNigerianArmy doesn't have a response to this resurgence. The strategy of fortifying #Maiduguri and the larger towns while abandoning the countryside is clearly failing, emboldening #BokoHaram & #ISWAP to consolidate their positions.

20/ #ISWAP and #BokoHaram are slowly working their way towards #Maiduguri. It is vital that @HQNigerianArmy switches to a search and destroy strategy, but only after resolving issues around troop morale and poor equipment.