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1. These Presidential rallies really are like nothing else in the history of American politics. We've had presidents who misrepresent the truth, presidents who whip up racial divisions for electoral gain, but we've never had one who could amp up a conservative crowd like this.
2. The @gop has got to be wondering, where do we go from here? Once your base has come to crave and expect the emotional rush that comes from one of these rallies, how do you feed that need once Trump is gone?
3. Do they really think the hundreds of thousands of people who have attended a Trump rally since 2015 are going to be moved by a "Little Marco" stump speech, a wonky Mitt lecture about civility, a polite Nikki Haley endorsement of global engagement & tolerating our differences?
4. I'd bet the vast majority of Trump rally attendees are longtime GOP voters...the party has always relied on their votes, but Trump has now encouraged them to be more demanding of the GOP, to viciously turn on a variety of RINO's like Flake, McCain, Kasich, Sasse, etc.
5. When Trump departs the GOP's center stage, where does his most avid base go? I think the GOP is kidding itself if it thinks the folks who've been enjoying the MAGA sugar high will settle for an oat bran figurehead like Dole or W or Mitt or McCain.
6. Trump has already alienated many moderate suburban voters, especially women. The very GOP candidates who could get those voters back will bore the crap out of the sort of folks who go to these rallies to have Trump stoke their rage with made up stories and statistics.
7. What is the future of the GOP base which Trump has so effectively (& quite easily) won over to his angry brand? Do they return to being reliable but disgruntled, lesser-of-two-evils GOP voters like they probably were before? Do they recede into the background again?
8. Does the GOP replicate the 1988 transition from disruptive, charismatic ideologue (Reagan) to bland establishment figure (GHWB)? It's hard to see these rally attendees consenting to such a thing. Trump's base is way angrier and more alienated than Reagan's was.
9. So it's no wonder the GOP is trying so hard to avoid a primary challenge in 2020, something one would expect when an incumbent's favorables are hovering around 40%. The GOP understandably hopes to leave that fight for another day, but I suspect that fight is gonna be a doozy.
10. Here's a thread from last May where I tried to imagine different forms the MAGA wind down might take. Will the furies we see unleashed at Trump's rallies go gently into that dark night?
