Thread by @LibertyBlitz

1/ It's Friday, so time for a weekly thread on my latest piece. This one was titled: "You Can’t Stop the Cycle"
libertyblitzkrieg.com/2019/02/25/you…

2/ The post expounds on my recent commentary on cycles, in particular, the fact that multiple major cycles are currently on a collision course with each other. I name three, the economy cycle, the political cycle and the generational cycle.

3/ These cycles are not totally independent, but rather play off each other and influence each other. For example, the political cycle, kicked off in earnest in 2016, was birthed by the corrupt and kleptocratic response to the financial crisis and the misery and anger it created.

4/ The generational cycle was always going to happen, but the form it takes is influenced by the societal and economic ground in which younger generations come of age.

5/ In this case, central banks and governments responded to the crimes of the financial crisis by bailing out the criminals, and pumping money into the system to prop up assets held by wealthy baby boomers. Stocks, bonds and real estate.

6/ Millennials were mostly too young to understand how shafted they were ten years ago, but they understand it now. Entering their 30s, they can't afford homes or the cost of having kids. Which is the main reason they aren't having kids.

7/ And now it's getting to the point where if they don't do something drastic they feel they have no hope for a future. This is why socialism is becoming popular. It's a direct consequence of the criminal way the bailout went down and how badly it distorted the economy.

8/ Saying young people are attracted to socialism because they don't get it or are just dumb, shows how disconnected you are. This is an entirely logical and predictable response. Bankers got infinite money, the military gets infinite money, why can't I? That's what's happening.

9/ In case it's not clear, all other cycles are playing out the way they are as a direct consequence of the bailout period and how that was handled. This is why I refuse to let it go or stop talking about it. It was the most significant, society shaping event of my life.

10/ But what's scariest of all, is that 10 years later, and despite the very clear society destabilizing effects of their actions, Central Banks are making it 100% clear that not only have they learned nothing, they think they succeeded.

11/ We know this because the minute stock markets started falling the Fed rushed out, did a 180 on policy, and we hear chatter of negative interest rates and QE outside of an emergency. They think they did a good thing 10 years ago and they promise to do even more. INSANE

12/ Again, and it's important to get this, the Fed and central banks have no plan other than pumping money and propping up the assets held mainly by wealthy old people (stocks, bonds and real estate). Bernanke admitted this 10 years ago, it's not speculation.

13/ Even worse, based on how panicky Powell got last year, we see something even more concerning. There is no appetite for letting the economic cycle play out in financial markets.

14/ Though the response to the last crisis was criminal and society destabilizing, there was at least a release in the markets. Markets at least cleared a little bit for a little while. This time they seem determined to not even let that happen.

15/ Here's the thing. It will clear. It always has to clear one way or the other. What history tells us about elites who refuse to change and keep taking more, is they put it off up to the point where it gets cleared via pitchforks and guillotines. But the system always clears.

16/ The good thing about real markets/competition and democracy is it offers a release valve. When working properly you can release tension in society and cleanse the system enough to reset and keep it going. This avoids the violent revolution end, which no one should ever want.

17/ To summarize, every central bank intervention at this stage and every interference in preventing markets from clearing builds up not only systemic financial system risk, but also society-destabilization risk.

18/ The people I'm most contemptuous of are those who should know better but cheer on these interventions because it supports their portfolios. These people are the types who would try to log into Charles Schwab while strapped into a guillotine.

19/ That's it. The cycle plays out, always. The systems clears, always. We just don't know how it will clear, and those with sense will push for reform and clearing now, so the worst and violent way of system cleanse never, ever happens. This is why I started writing years ago.

20/ Finally, I removed all ads from my site recently, so the only way any of my work is monetized is via reader support. If you appreciate what I do here and on my website, consider supporting my efforts.
libertyblitzkrieg.com/support-libert…

21/ My Patreon has grown recently, and I'LL be providing some content exclusively to supporters going forward. Check out the options.
patreon.com/michaelkrieger