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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
.@joshdelyon and @swatdhingraLSE (LSE Centre for Economic Performance) say the impact of the Brexit vote on the health of the economy can now be evaluated with greater accuracy than previously.

1/5
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03…
UK GDP growth is now weaker than international trends and productivity is stagnating

2/5
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… Screenshot of 2 paragraphs on UK GDP growth slowing down and productivity suffering
Sterling's depreciation has not lifted exports and has made imports more expensive

3/5
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… Screenshot of paragraph on sterling depreciation increasing costs and what has happened with exports
Purchasing power has gone down

4/5
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… Screenshot of paragraph on purchasing power going down
Inward and outward foreign direct investment have dropped

5/5
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/03… Screenshot of the end of the piece, from the paragraph beginning
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
A thread on GATT Article 24 and the proposed Brexit options, since it’s likely to be mentioned.

It’s not just “Malthouse Plan B”. At least 10 of the 16 options have to comply with GATT Article 24

And then there’s GATS Article 5 for services



1/18
Reminder:

GATT Art24 applies to ANY free trade agreement in goods between WTO members such as the UK and EU.

GATS Art5 apples to ANY free trade agreement (or closer integration) in services between them.

All the options proposed are here: publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…

2/18
Borrowing from @DawnHFoster.

Option A (Bill Cash): Condemns the PM’s Brexit deal and today’s votes, bans MPs from ever doing this again without a two-thirds majority

GATT Art24/GATS Art5 — not relevant

3/18 Screenshot of option A from the Parliament website. All other images are similar
Read 19 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures are about food safety, animal and plant health.

So why — I hear you ask — does New Zealand have SPS regulations on imported *vehicles, machinery and equipment*?

Answer: because of the brown marmorated stink bug

spsims.wto.org/en/SpecificTra…
Japan keeps bringing its concerns about "New Zealand's Import Standard for Vehicles, Machinery and Equipment from Japan" back to the @wto SPS Committee.

So here it is: the brown marmorated stink bug, a global pest

(Photo: Hectonichus on Wikipedia) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_mar… Photo of brown marmorated stink bug
There are even loads of YouTube videos about it

Read 5 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Spot on. To be absolutely clear, the WTO is run by its member governments. They negotiate the rules and monitor whether the rules are respected. The Secretariat's role is exactly that, secretarial, supporting members' work in the councils and committees

1/2
Perhaps this week is a good time to retweet my @ChathamHouse @CH_Events presentation on the WTO and Brexit, in case anyone finds it useful. 30 mins presentation, 30 mins Q&A. #GoWTO? Not what people think.

2/2
chathamhouse.org/event/chatham-…
Or if you prefer to read, here's a piece on the WTO and democracy

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/08/17/wha…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. The Rolls Royce story this morning was instructive. They are moving their design approvals work to Germany. They say it won't involve that many job losses - but that's only really the tip of the iceberg for the sector...

#Brexit thread
2. Passenger aircraft go through a series of maintenance checks at depots in the UK. There are deep inspections and none of this can be done without authorisations and certifications. That's the sort of services trade in danger by leaving the EEA. and especially so with no deal
3. Then, if one of these inspections finds a patch of corrosion in the wing, that section of rib or stringer has to be cut out and replaced. A designer has to come up with a solution that not only fits, but also can withstand the stress.
Read 18 tweets
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Dr Adi MacArtney
@Science_Hooker
I've been frustrated at the lack of info available on what #Brexit might really mean. Media is full of shrill, non-informative partisan rhetoric. This is the 1st of many info threads I will do on Brexit. I use 2017/18 data, unless the info is particularly insightful. EDUCATION:
Tsiligiris V., de Ruyte A. (2018). What the higher education Brexit debate has not covered. irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/3268… #Brexit #BrexitDebate #AcademicTwitter
Courtois A. (2018). Brexit and Universities: Toward a Reconfiguration of the European Higher Education Sector? International Higher Education 94 ejournals.bc.edu/ojs/index.php/… #Brexit #BrexitDebate #AcademicTwitter
Read 15 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Brexit Irony No.521:
Brexit would make Metropolitan Elitism worse-

The Brexit vote was against our London-centric system. So if there's an economic hit because of a Brexit London voted against, Westminster would make sure the London Banking sector survived but everywhere else...
Many of the problems that pushed people to vote Brexit had nothing to do with the EU. One of those problems was the government choosing to protect the banks who caused the crash with bailouts while ordinary people just got austerity.
The rich took irresponsible risks with the country's future, but they were protected either by moving their money away or by the government and it was those with least who suffered the most.
Sound familiar? #Brexit
Read 5 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Megathread - Yes, the #Brexit vote is illegitimate, and it's not elitist to say so

Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
2) So why was the #Brexit vote illegitimate? Well, broadly speaking:
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
3) Leave simply would not win if the costs of the #Brexit they promised were revealed honestly in a second referendum. The only way they could win is if these costs were obscured again

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 13 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
1/ Very small thread on why #Brexit is actualy leading to the end of the UK or atleast the UK of the post war period as we understand it & its much, much more than *just* Irish & the Scots. Its as much about the English and its polity......
2/ Firstly tho Irish unification & Scottish independence - the 1st is likely to be accelerated once the inevitable demographic reality tips in (around 2030). Scottish Indy less predictable but in any case #Brexit vote confirmed a break - one that's even riven the Scottish Tories.
3/ What many dont get is that #Brexit will findamentally change "restUK" too. After UKs decline in 70s, EU membership enabled UK to be a big hitter - an atlanticist well armed, UN Sec Council member "big beast" inside a "global player" european trade bloc. This will change....
Read 14 tweets
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Dr Dominic Pimenta
@juniordrblog
“There were lies on both sides”. Is that really true? /thread #Brexit /1
1) “950,000 job losses” is predicated on leaving the EU so not yet. Certainly no large scale losses have occurred
Verdict: Too early to say
2) Since Brexit real weekly earnings have fallen by 0.5% ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=… mostly due to inflation. That’s £25 so far.
Verdict: Fact
Read 20 tweets

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