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I believe the chance of a no-deal Brexit went up enormously yesterday. Several factors:
- Theresa May's announcement she would quit means there's less *personal* consequence if she allows it to happen. ("What's the worst they can do? Fire me?")
- Renewed focus on Brexiters
- Theresa May's announcement she would quit means there's less *personal* consequence if she allows it to happen. ("What's the worst they can do? Fire me?")
- Renewed focus on Brexiters
as a result of her announcement. Many would relish a no-deal scenario.
- Failure of PV or revoke-as-last-resort to secure majorities in 1st round of indicative votes. It was always very likely nothing would get a majority, but there's immense hostility in the HOC against round 2.
- Failure of PV or revoke-as-last-resort to secure majorities in 1st round of indicative votes. It was always very likely nothing would get a majority, but there's immense hostility in the HOC against round 2.
Taken together, the factors above have really shifted the needle towards no-deal.
The other aspect of the equation that has been clear for a while, but really came into sharp relief yesterday: Labour won't save us.
Take all those things together and you have a perfect recipe for disaster. 😭
Take all those things together and you have a perfect recipe for disaster. 😭
And if you're thinking "but Parliament voted against no deal twice!" you must have missed the gut punch that neither vote was binding, and Theresa May has explicitly said she won't be bound by them...
No deal remains very much live. It's still the default!
No deal remains very much live. It's still the default!
