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This is an important conversation for us to have.

#Nigeria can scarce afford to be looking to project influence when our primary challenges are at home, so in the geopolitical game, we are toast. @FulanNasrullah @bigbrovar @andrewfootie @chrisngwodo
Like #Zamfara, like #Borno, like #Benue, like #Kogi (last night), like #Ebonyi, like #Adamawa.

Looking at a few maps and our issues become quite clear. They are no accident. This is a map of #Nigeria's subnational HDI. We'll come back to it later...
In the 1960s, the government conceived of two economic corridors largely following the colonial rail lines. We didn't build on them, but the 2NEC was completely abandoned.

It is no accident that until #Zamfara, the majority of our internecine conflicts were along the old 2NEC...
We've been able to tide over the cracks because most of #Nigeria's regions have arable lands that historically allowed the country to support a large population.

But a series of man-made disasters has meant that we aren't able to build on what the Almighty gave us.
Consider that the Great Green Wall project has not done much on the #Nigeria|n end, and you'll understand why desertification is becoming a problem.

The impact of this desertification is that people are being squeezed into a smaller area of land.
So eg, in 1975, there was roughly 1M sq. km of land available for pasture, and we had 9.3 million cattle.

By 2011, given desertification, deforestation, and population growth, it's somewhere between 38% & 62% of the 1975 levels of land available, but we had 19.5 million cattle.
What does this mean?

It means that the resources available for sharing is dwindling, while the population to share these resources is growing.

To make matters worse, we live in a very bad neighbourhood.

Remember the HDI map from earlier? This one is for the whole world...
It's either we put up, or we see more conflict, and increasingly, that conflict will take on ethnic and religious tones because those are the simplest ways to explain what is happening, and Nigeria is full of simpletons.
Managing the competition for natural resources between our ethnically divided regions is #Nigeria's primary geopolitical challenge over the coming decades, and I no longer believe that we are equipped to deal with these challenges.
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