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Speculation that Macron will have to "cave in" at the European Council because he would never risk "taking the blame" for a no-deal Brexit are way off the mark. Not the way the man works.
Central to the French prez's view is that Brexit shouldn't keep monopolizing ("polluting," in govt official's word) the intra-European debate, complicated enough as it is. 2/
So Macron will agree neither to unconditional extension, nor to anything that might be negated at a further date due to the UK political funk, seen lasting for another few years (i.e. "a maniac Brexiteer as PM, another hung Parliament or new calls for yet another referendum.") 3/
If May can produce even a vague cross-party agreement on the (in)famous "way forward," Macron can agree to extension until June and maybe later, providing he gets strong guarantees the UK won't meddle in EU affairs - which will be legally hard to do. 4/
But he would have no qualms opposing another delay if he thinks it's not in France's and (his vision of) the EU's interest. It has little to do with de Gaulle (anachronism) little to do with Merkel (after all, what has she done for him?) and a lot to do with realpolitik. 5/
Or, to sum up: I don't think Macron wants, or relishes the idea to veto an extension. But to think he would hesitate to do it just because he'd be alone is misunderstanding the man, both politically and personally. 6/
