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When Juncker said today he would « equally respect and establish working relations with any new (uk) Prime Minister whoever they may be » .. the whoever they may be refers to Boris Johnson or another passionate Brexiteer the EU assumes will probably replace Theresa May #Trexit /1
EU doesn’t relish the prospect. They’ve been game planning the possibility of “PM Boris” for months. Mrs May’s Denise hardly comes as a surprise /2
Rather like when Donald Trump became US president, there has been many a European musing as to whether “populist Boris, the arch Brexiteer” might be tamed by office into becoming calmer and (from the European perspective) more reasonable /3
The worry here is Johnson, or another Brexiteer, keen to prove their spurs, will want to play to the gallery at home: obstructing EU business where they can, as long as UK remains a reluctant member.
The EU has already taken legal advice on how to avoid potential problems /4
The EU has already taken legal advice on how to avoid potential problems /4
Eg the EU has concluded, if the new UK prime minister held up next EU budget, which needs to be decided in the autumn, then EU27 minus the UK could informally sign off the budget off. Their decision would become legally-binding once the UK officially left EU /5
Speculation re May’s successor has got EU leaders thinking about whether or not to grant the UK a new Brexit extension. The current one runs out on 31 October /6
EU assumption is new UK PM will want more time to hold general election or to renegotiate Withdrawal Agreement. Good luck with that one, says Brussels, though Dublin may worry resolve of some EU leaders could falter if faced with real prospect (this time) of a no deal Brexit /7
A number of EU countries, notably France, think it probably best to close the door sooner rather than later, to a country that is leaving anyway. President Macron worries that the longer the UK stays reluctantly, the more it might poison the general EU atmosphere but /8
Germany would prefer to give the UK more time, if not to change its mind about #Brexit, then at least to ensure an “orderly exit” – ie Brexit with a deal – to avoid the economic and political fallout of no deal at all /9
BUT 31 October is still a long way off in political terms. EU leaders are far more focussed on this week’s elections for the European parliament. Result could have a profound impact on national governments of a fair few countries, incl the EU’s Big Two, Germany and France /10
